07.31.08
20080731
The WIG Index is touching the trendline from May, however I won’t even try to forecast what will happen tomorrow. I have to admit I’m still bear, but very confused one right now:
If this is major trend reversal there will be many occasions and lot of time to join the uptrend, after it’s truly confirmed. I like my money and I also remember the term: Bear Trap. Therefore I wait at least for Fibo 61.8% (which is not so far away anyway). Another strategy is Dow Jones approach, when we wait for correction and see if the next wave can take its high. Let’s also take a look a monthly candlestick chart:
The WIG20 Index is looking even more impressive, however it’s touching long-term (since the highest top in 2007) resistance. If this line is crossed and holds for at least couple of sessions, it will be very strong buy signal:
As for interesting stuff:
Federal Reserve is extending the emergency loans and also enables commercial banks to bid for cash loans that lasts 84 days (instead of standard 28 days). For more information please read here.
I don’t have idea how to interpret that – nevertheless, nobody can tell, that FED is out of ammunition.
Sources:
[http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/07/30/business/30extend.php]
[http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121742140378196767.html?mod=djemITPE]
[http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/beartrap.asp]
07.30.08
20080730
The WIG Index rallied and finished just below January low. Technically speaking this should be very strong resistance. Looking at the US high close, we maybe we will be able to cross this line. Also the volume was very high today.
This move is surprisingly strong, but I’m still out of stock market. Many investors are wondering if the primary downtrend is finally over, but I’m confused. Like Brian Shannon from AlphaTrends said in one of his analysys – now the market is guilty unless proven innocent. I’m personally waiting for crossing the Fibo 61.8%.
The WIG20 Index looks even more bullish, we have already crossed the January low. The WIG20 Index is climbing to Fibo 61.8% (ca. 2805), nevertheless this index can be slightly ‘adjusted’ by big players, so I’m considering WIG Index as main target of analysis.
As for interesting stuff – investing in Russia can be still dangerous. Few worlds from Vladimir Putin crashed Mechel (rus. Мечел), one of Russia’s leading mining and metallurgical companies. Please check the sources section for full article in FinancialTimes.
Sources:
[http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/88f6033e-5d94-11dd-8129-000077b07658.html]
07.29.08
20080729
The WIG Index tried for third time to cross the 41k support and it failed, but we are still in uptrend and above resistance line, therefore nothing new can be said right now. Nevertheless, please note quickly dropping volume, which is not a good sign:
Similar situation can be observed on WIG20, therefore we will have to wait for situation to clarify:
Please also note PKNORLEN will have dividend cut-off; this should total to about -15 points in WIG20 Index.
SeekingAlpha published quite interesting article with various assets (i.a.: S&P500, Oil, Gold) correlation matrix. What surprised me is almost co correlation between SP&500 and Oil, Gold. The matrix can be seen here.
Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/86118-asset-class-correlations]
