08.30.08
20080830 – EURPLN
I just love the market – whenever I’m sure of something (this post), the market does something opposite. Forex will quickly cure everyone of high self-esteem. Take a look at EURPLN:
It’s too early to say, that EURPLN has broken out from a channel, nevertheless it looks surprising. RSI does give us the negative divergence (trend breakout), however short-term trend is upward (higher-low, higher-high pattern).
08.29.08
20080829
The WIG Index is market has broken the long-term line, nevertheless it was not confirmed yet in any way:
The WIG20 Index clearly broken-out from a downward channel, but remember WIG20 Index tends to overreact:
Please note the nice positive divergences on both indexes – they can be the key to current situation. Nevertheless, on intraday basics the wide market looks really messy:
The downtrend looks it has been broken (without confirmation yet). However, the current price draft can become the double tops or reversed shoulder-head-shoulder easily. Thus, stay focused, but do not do anything yet.
08.25.08
20080825
Not much to say. Both indexes are still in downtrend channel:
Small trend breaks can be noticed in oscillators, but it really gives no clues about future market moves.
The polish unemployment hit its record high (20.4%) in Sep, 2002. Since then has been continuously dropping to today’s level of 7.3%. The EU accession in May 2004 just seeded-up this process. However, the main reason for the drop is not domestic job creation, but the huge Pollens emigration, mainly to Germany, UK and Ireland (Wikipedia).
Lack of domestic specialists, caused the prices for services to go up and therefore the GDP was increased as well. Huge inflation is a problem, however the energy, food and gas prices were shielded with strong uptrend of polish currency (i.e.: EURPLN, USDPLN, GBPPLN).
Can Poland continue with such a strong economy? Probably no, but I don’t expect the same level of economy slowndown as in Europe. Really good article can be found here (I seriously encourage to read it).
Please note:
This is the last chart in this week, as I’m going abroad for the rest of the week. Nevertheless, I will try to chart Friday session at the end of weekend.
Sources:
[http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/1834336.stm]
[http://globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.com/2007/10/employment-and-unemployment-in-poland.html]
