11.29.08
20081129 – EURPLN, CHFPLN
The EURPLN is still in uptrend (long-term buy), however it could not break the high of 3.9819 as for now:
The CHFPLN has similar situation (uptrend, long-term buy):
We can also observe the possible symmetrical triangle formation on daily chart, which is a continuation pattern. However, this formation becomes reliable only after breakout:
Unfortunately for polish mortgage owners, nothing negated the long-term uptrend yet.
High demand on US Treasury Notes pushed their yields below 3% (here), the lowest rate since 1958 (for historical data look here). This could mean growing investor’s aversion to risk.
Sources:
[http://federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/108441-chart-of-the-week-yields-on-u-s-10-year-treasury-notes-below-3]
11.28.08
20081128
The WIG Index has lost some of its momentum:
There is a potential symmetrical triangle formation, with potential swing ca.6100 points (see update to yesterday’s post). We will observe it daily, but note, the triangle formation is valid only after breakout (preferable with volume confirmation). Intraday chart shows it in more clearly:
There is sell signal in short-term as the intraday low of 26995 has been broken. Additionally, the ascending broadening wedge formation can be also noted on intraday chart, which suggest short-term reversal. However, this formation is not a reliable one.
Steven J.Williams has presented an interesting DJIA analysis (here). It does not look very optimistic:
In this post we have written about WSE manipulation from 12th Nov. Here (via Google Language Tools) are some news about WSE reaction.
Sources:
[http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Exchange/9807/Charts/SP500/Outlook.htm]
[http://biznes.gazetaprawna.pl/artykuly/97030,gpw_nie_mozna_stwierdzic_ze_12_listopada_doszlo_do_manipulacji.html (via Google Language Tools)]
11.27.08
20081127
The WIG Index climbed a little higher today:
The RSI and CCI are showing positive divergence, what could be the clue for the coming rally. Alternatively, the WIG Index can be drawing the symmetric triangle now. The overall situation is not clear and we need to wait for clarification (crossing weekly high or weekly low).
The Bankier.pl portal has published an interesting newsletter about polish mortgage market (here, polish). Forecasts are kind of pessimistic, but it’s definitely worth reading.
Update from 2008/11/28:
The WIG Index 1-hour chart shows us potential symmetrical triangle formation:
This is a continuation pattern, with target swing ca.6100 points. The volume is trending upwards and that’s unusual for this formation (as per Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, T.N.Bulkowski). However, those formation become reliable only after breakout (preferably with confirmation in volume).
Sources:
[http://www.bankier.pl/goto2.html?nazwa=PRZEGLAD_SPEC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bankier.pl%2Fi%2Fprzeglad%2Fpdf%2Fprzeglads_20081124.pdf]
[http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/symmetricaltriangle.asp]
