12.31.08
20081231
This year’s last session finished with loss -0.59%:
Year 2008 finished in a painful consolidation. General situation is not clear, this can be just steeping stone in free fall continuation or the long awaited-bottom:
What was the most important lesson this year? I believe it was to cut losses while they are still small. When primary trend is broken, we shouldn’t hope there will be reversal, so we can retrieve our money. The price is important, not our feelings.
The Madoff’s scam (here) as well as hedge funds speculative actions (here, anyway – they are supposed to be speculative) has damaged investors’ trust in finance institutions. It was also the worst year since 1930 as per stock market year-to-date change (here). Those eight days will be specially remembered for sure.
There is no certain way to tell which direction market will go, but the odds are always on trend side. Calling a bottom is not a good idea with strong trend.
SaxoBank forecasts’ for 2009 were presented in this post. We should also summarize the forecasts from Dec 2007 (here). Let’s also listen to Jim Rogers in this video.
Happy Year 2009!
(image shamelessly stolen from here)
Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/madoffs-alleged-fraud-claims-some/story.aspx?guid={C9E3CFD6-F502-4B26-817C-1A11B74448D0}]
[http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123033354851036281.html]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/US-stocks-rise-final-trading/story.aspx?guid={BBBD6586-03B8-424A-B002-96DB1CD56776}]
[http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/31/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?postversion=2008123110]
[http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/news/0812/gallery.8_days_to_remember/index.html]
[http://ft.onet.pl/0,18895,advice_for_seasonal_seers_future_is_not_in_the_stars,artykul_ft.html]
12.30.08
20081230
There was bigger volume than yesterday and the WIG Index gained +1.72%:
General situation has not changed and we have to wait. However, this stagnation is much better than continuous falling and at least gives us some hope.
U.S. securities regulators said to have found another Madoff-like scheme – Creative Capital (here).
SaxoBank has published ten quite pessimistic forecasts for the year 2009 (here).
As for interesting articles – here is DJIA historical changes since its debut.
It seems, that banks of China and Warren Buffett are amassing cash and other liquid instruments (here). Cash is the king now.
Also note short session tomorrow (ends 13:35) and forced cancellation of all pending orders.
Sources:
[http://www2.saxobank.com/en/market-news-and-analysis/Pages/economic-predictions-2009.aspx]
[http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/downloads/DJIA_Hist_Comp.pdf]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/sec-says-halts-23-million/story.aspx?guid={0433C54B-0156-4091-94CE-952161C2C58B}]
[http://ft.onet.pl/0,19091,buffett_and_china_banks_top_cash-rich_groups_list,artykul_ft.html]
12.29.08
20081229
Today’s session ended with small gain (+1.19%), but volume was minimal:
In general situation nothing really changed: buy in long-term, sell in medium- and short-term.
This week’s sessions are as follow:
- 30th Dec – normal session,
- 31st Dec – short session (ends 13:35). All pending orders will be cancelled,
- 1st Jan – no session,
- 2nd Jan – no session.
The CHFPLN has broken 2.73 and this is bad news for polish mortgages:
The 2.73 was last monthly peek and that generates buy signal on long-term.
