Comments for Kisiel2's blog http://kisiel2.wordpress.com Warsaw Stock Exchange Fri, 06 Nov 2009 11:07:56 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 Comment on 20091031 – EURPLN, CHFPLN by Gregorski http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/2009/10/31/20091031-eurpln-chfpln/#comment-181 Gregorski Fri, 06 Nov 2009 11:07:56 +0000 http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/?p=4349#comment-181 I understand your reluctance to give a definite answer. My feeling is that the Polish Zloty was over-sold and therefore is still under-valued considering that the economic situation in Poland is quite good compared to many countries. I understand your reluctance to give a definite answer. My feeling is that the Polish Zloty was over-sold and therefore is still under-valued considering that the economic situation in Poland is quite good compared to many countries.

]]> Comment on 20091031 – EURPLN, CHFPLN by kisiel2 http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/2009/10/31/20091031-eurpln-chfpln/#comment-180 kisiel2 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 19:00:59 +0000 http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/?p=4349#comment-180 In my (subjective) opinion it will be lower than today as per primary downtrend. Nevertheless, I'm trying not to fix my opinion. It makes no sense, especially in currency markets. Polish Zloty is quite volatile asset nowadays. Sorry for late answer, I did not have access to blog until now. In my (subjective) opinion it will be lower than today as per primary downtrend.
Nevertheless, I’m trying not to fix my opinion. It makes no sense, especially in currency markets. Polish Zloty is quite volatile asset nowadays.

Sorry for late answer, I did not have access to blog until now.

]]> Comment on 20091031 – EURPLN, CHFPLN by Gregorski http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/2009/10/31/20091031-eurpln-chfpln/#comment-179 Gregorski Sun, 01 Nov 2009 01:17:39 +0000 http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/?p=4349#comment-179 I follow you currecy comments with interest. Where do you think CHF-PLN is going in the next 3-6 months. I follow you currecy comments with interest.

Where do you think CHF-PLN is going in the next 3-6 months.

]]> Comment on 20090924 by REIT http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/2009/09/24/20090924/#comment-177 REIT Tue, 06 Oct 2009 22:36:27 +0000 http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/?p=4167#comment-177 Generally I do not post on blogs, but I would like to say that this post really forced me to do so, Excellent post! <a HREF="http://www.xbox360forum.com/forum/members/lordraiden.html" rel="nofollow"> :) </A> Generally I do not post on blogs, but I would like to say that this post really forced me to do so, Excellent post! :)

]]> Comment on 20090629 by tostocktrading http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/2009/06/29/20090629/#comment-160 tostocktrading Mon, 13 Jul 2009 08:27:10 +0000 http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/?p=3703#comment-160 HI, Nice description I am exited to read the whole blog Regards HI,

Nice description I am exited to read the whole blog

Regards

]]> Comment on 20090518 by kisiel_nologo http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/2009/05/18/20090518/#comment-143 kisiel_nologo Sun, 24 May 2009 20:39:48 +0000 http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/?p=3506#comment-143 Thank you very much! We are living in interesting age. Thank you very much!
We are living in interesting age.

]]> Comment on 20090518 by Grzech http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/2009/05/18/20090518/#comment-142 Grzech Sat, 23 May 2009 15:15:23 +0000 http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/?p=3506#comment-142 Hi I just want to tell you that this is one of the best blogs about polish market. Simple, clear, always up to date. Can learn a lot by reading it. Thanks for your great job. Regards, Grzech Hi
I just want to tell you that this is one of the best blogs about polish market. Simple, clear, always up to date. Can learn a lot by reading it. Thanks for your great job. Regards, Grzech

]]> Comment on 20090207 – EURPLN, CHFPLN by StaTrader http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/2009/02/07/20090207-eurpln-chfpln/#comment-91 StaTrader Sun, 08 Feb 2009 13:00:44 +0000 http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/?p=2739#comment-91 Hi, Thank you for the hint with the WIG Index. I will have a look to it. Hi,

Thank you for the hint with the WIG Index. I will have a look to it.

]]> Comment on 20090207 – EURPLN, CHFPLN by kisiel_nologo http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/2009/02/07/20090207-eurpln-chfpln/#comment-90 kisiel_nologo Sat, 07 Feb 2009 19:55:56 +0000 http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/?p=2739#comment-90 Hi, the EURPLN seems to be periodically negatively correlated with WIG Index: http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/files/2009/02/wig_eurpln_correlation_20090206.png I don’t think it’s useful in longer term, but maybe you can watch the WIG Index also? Hi,

the EURPLN seems to be periodically negatively correlated with WIG Index:

http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/files/2009/02/wig_eurpln_correlation_20090206.png

I don’t think it’s useful in longer term, but maybe you can watch the WIG Index also?

]]> Comment on 20090207 – EURPLN, CHFPLN by StaTrader http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/2009/02/07/20090207-eurpln-chfpln/#comment-88 StaTrader Sat, 07 Feb 2009 17:38:41 +0000 http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/?p=2739#comment-88 Hi, you was right with the EUR/PLN anlaysis, but the correction is there, now. I am still in the game (short) and can win my trade if the correction will continue for a couple days. I also have increased my short position. Hopefully we will see a red weekly bar on Friday next week. Regards, StaTrader Hi,
you was right with the EUR/PLN anlaysis, but the correction is there, now. I am still in the game (short) and can win my trade if the correction will continue for a couple days. I also have increased my short position. Hopefully we will see a red weekly bar on Friday next week.

Regards,
StaTrader

]]> Comment on 20090124 – EURPLN, CHFPLN by StaTrader http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/2009/01/24/20090124-eurpln-chfpln/#comment-83 StaTrader Sat, 24 Jan 2009 21:00:22 +0000 http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/?p=2620#comment-83 You are right, but my strategy works against that what all the theory says. This is not easy at all! Because I trade only a little amount of money I increase step by step my position when it goes to the wrong direction. With this I can get a good cost average. (Nobody can get a top always exactly). You only can do this in extreme situations otherwise you get lost... If there is never a retracement I have to accept that I am wrong, but there are so many bullish days in a row, so I believe the retracement comes soon. I have tried that more often. I do not look for a complete trend change, I look for a retracement. We will see. StaTrader You are right, but my strategy works against that what all the theory says. This is not easy at all! Because I trade only a little amount of money I increase step by step my position when it goes to the wrong direction. With this I can get a good cost average. (Nobody can get a top always exactly). You only can do this in extreme situations otherwise you get lost… If there is never a retracement I have to accept that I am wrong, but there are so many bullish days in a row, so I believe the retracement comes soon. I have tried that more often. I do not look for a complete trend change, I look for a retracement. We will see.
StaTrader

]]> Comment on 20090124 – EURPLN, CHFPLN by kisiel_nologo http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/2009/01/24/20090124-eurpln-chfpln/#comment-82 kisiel_nologo Sat, 24 Jan 2009 20:28:46 +0000 http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/?p=2620#comment-82 Won't it be better to wait for actual reversal (like crossing the 3.87 for now) and then enter a trade? I'm not a Forex player and I don't know your strategy, but in stocks my bottom-guesses are usually wrong, especially those against the trend. Won’t it be better to wait for actual reversal (like crossing the 3.87 for now) and then enter a trade?
I’m not a Forex player and I don’t know your strategy, but in stocks my bottom-guesses are usually wrong, especially those against the trend.

]]> Comment on 20090124 – EURPLN, CHFPLN by StaTrader http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/2009/01/24/20090124-eurpln-chfpln/#comment-81 StaTrader Sat, 24 Jan 2009 18:46:00 +0000 http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/?p=2620#comment-81 You are right that the trend EUR/PLN is in place. I am waiting for a retracement. In my opinion it will be there during the next week or the week after. My guess is that it starts with the beginning of the new week. It might be also an additional significant bulish week for the EUR. My trading account goes currently down, but I still wait some days or weeks before I give up and close the position. I am still confident for a retracement. StaTrader You are right that the trend EUR/PLN is in place. I am waiting for a retracement. In my opinion it will be there during the next week or the week after. My guess is that it starts with the beginning of the new week. It might be also an additional significant bulish week for the EUR. My trading account goes currently down, but I still wait some days or weeks before I give up and close the position. I am still confident for a retracement.
StaTrader

]]> Comment on 20090117 – EURPLN, CHFPLN by StaTrader http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/2009/01/17/20090117-eurpln-chfpln/#comment-80 StaTrader Sun, 18 Jan 2009 21:36:52 +0000 http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/?p=2552#comment-80 Thank you for the information. The charts are very nice, but I cannot read polish. I am German. Have a nice week. My blog is: www.view.yourweb.de Thank you for the information. The charts are very nice, but I cannot read polish. I am German. Have a nice week. My blog is: http://www.view.yourweb.de

]]> Comment on 20090117 – EURPLN, CHFPLN by kisiel2_nologo http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/2009/01/17/20090117-eurpln-chfpln/#comment-79 kisiel2_nologo Sun, 18 Jan 2009 21:06:52 +0000 http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/?p=2552#comment-79 As per EURPLN charts: This chart is for people who amassed or are earning EUR and want to convert it to PLN (mostly polish immigrants abroad). Thus, EURPLN and CHFPLN charts are reviewed weekly. As for life-practice - most of those transfers are done via banks, thus huge spreads kill any reversal strategy (therefore - no buying EUR). During backtesting I did not find any better method for recognizing trend reversal (Fibo levels are often overrun, zigzag patterns like butterfly are not so reliable). Basically this system is working on weekly peaks. As per CHFPLN charts: Those charts are focused on forecasting the polish mortgages payments. 80% of polish mortgages were in CHF and right now only low CHF LIBOR shields the mortgage payments. General idea is to forecast what we should expect in next month and maybe there more market timing will be useful. As per EURPLN charts:
This chart is for people who amassed or are earning EUR and want to convert it to PLN (mostly polish immigrants abroad). Thus, EURPLN and CHFPLN charts are reviewed weekly.

As for life-practice – most of those transfers are done via banks, thus huge spreads kill any reversal strategy (therefore – no buying EUR). During backtesting I did not find any better method for recognizing trend reversal (Fibo levels are often overrun, zigzag patterns like butterfly are not so reliable). Basically this system is working on weekly peaks.

As per CHFPLN charts:
Those charts are focused on forecasting the polish mortgages payments. 80% of polish mortgages were in CHF and right now only low CHF LIBOR shields the mortgage payments.
General idea is to forecast what we should expect in next month and maybe there more market timing will be useful.

]]> Comment on 20090117 – EURPLN, CHFPLN by StaTrader http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/2009/01/17/20090117-eurpln-chfpln/#comment-78 StaTrader Sun, 18 Jan 2009 20:37:19 +0000 http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/?p=2552#comment-78 ok - I play Forex and I am a technical trader. So I am looking for a change for a view days only (swing down). That means the link you show above is not a discrepance to my trading style, because the retracement A->B on the right side of the chart is all I need to make money (EUR/PLN is then around 4.0). I have no idea what then follows it can be up it can be down. In principle I agree to your theory about the buy signal... In practice is is not so easy as you know, too. StaTrader ok – I play Forex and I am a technical trader. So I am looking for a change for a view days only (swing down). That means the link you show above is not a discrepance to my trading style, because the retracement A->B on the right side of the chart is all I need to make money (EUR/PLN is then around 4.0). I have no idea what then follows it can be up it can be down.

In principle I agree to your theory about the buy signal… In practice is is not so easy as you know, too.

StaTrader

]]> Comment on 20090117 – EURPLN, CHFPLN by kisiel2_nologo http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/2009/01/17/20090117-eurpln-chfpln/#comment-77 kisiel2_nologo Sun, 18 Jan 2009 19:31:38 +0000 http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/?p=2552#comment-77 I hope you are right, also for CHFPLN - which is currently a disaster for polish mortgages. I'm not plyaing FOREX, but IMHO breaking the high of 4.2050 is obviously a buy signal. My stoploss is on 3.86 and before that level it's still uptrend by definition. Nevertheless, I'm not trying to time the market - it's more like pure trend following here. And there are few different opinions, like this one: http://lemansa.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/eurpln.png I hope you are right, also for CHFPLN – which is currently a disaster for polish mortgages.
I’m not plyaing FOREX, but IMHO breaking the high of 4.2050 is obviously a buy signal. My stoploss is on 3.86 and before that level it’s still uptrend by definition.

Nevertheless, I’m not trying to time the market – it’s more like pure trend following here. And there are few different opinions, like this one:
http://lemansa.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/eurpln.png

]]> Comment on 20090117 – EURPLN, CHFPLN by StaTrader http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/2009/01/17/20090117-eurpln-chfpln/#comment-76 StaTrader Sun, 18 Jan 2009 18:49:21 +0000 http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/?p=2552#comment-76 EUR/PLN I do not believe that the current situation is a good buy from a timing perspective. I think the party is almost done! Please have a look to the monthly and to the weekly longterm chart starting from 2005 on. It might be shown soon as a false break, because the rallye is gone to fast. There is a long term resistance present, now. Perhaps the rallye goes on for a while, but I would be very careful in this situation for a buy. In my opinion your chart does not show the overall longterm situation. By the way in almost all timeframes the value is at the upper bollinger band. My opinion and feedback, only StaTrader EUR/PLN
I do not believe that the current situation is a good buy from a timing perspective. I think the party is almost done! Please have a look to the monthly and to the weekly longterm chart starting from 2005 on. It might be shown soon as a false break, because the rallye is gone to fast. There is a long term resistance present, now. Perhaps the rallye goes on for a while, but I would be very careful in this situation for a buy. In my opinion your chart does not show the overall longterm situation. By the way in almost all timeframes the value is at the upper bollinger band.

My opinion and feedback, only
StaTrader

]]> Comment on 20081024 by skrew http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/2008/10/24/20081024/#comment-46 skrew Sat, 25 Oct 2008 10:39:46 +0000 http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/?p=1820#comment-46 Dzieki za odpowiedz. LeM-a sledze uwaznie. Juz fale byly wyliczone i domyslam sie teraz goraczkowo trzeba rachube modyfikowac. Zatem pomyslalem o tym co mysla inni. Jestem z Lubina, KGHM wpadl do kanalu wyznaczonego przez dlugoterminowe extrema. Juz spotykalem takich co deklarowali, ze jak bedzie po 20 to kupuja. Dzis zapal juz ostygl i chyba beda zwlekac. Zloza rudy na wyczerpaniu, nie zrobiono nic w otoczeniu, mam na mysli produkcje towarzyszace. Sa w okolicy nieprzebrane zasoby wegla brunatnego. Chcieliby ale boja sie. Mysle, ze cena bedzie sie obijala po bandach, az wystaruje wegiel i elektrownia o ile wczesniej Wattenfall nie pokrzyzuje takiego scenariusza. Dzieki za odpowiedz. LeM-a sledze uwaznie. Juz fale byly wyliczone i domyslam sie teraz goraczkowo trzeba rachube modyfikowac. Zatem pomyslalem o tym co mysla inni. Jestem z Lubina, KGHM wpadl do kanalu wyznaczonego przez dlugoterminowe extrema. Juz spotykalem takich co deklarowali, ze jak bedzie po 20 to kupuja. Dzis zapal juz ostygl i chyba beda zwlekac. Zloza rudy na wyczerpaniu, nie zrobiono nic w otoczeniu, mam na mysli produkcje towarzyszace. Sa w okolicy nieprzebrane zasoby wegla brunatnego. Chcieliby ale boja sie. Mysle, ze cena bedzie sie obijala po bandach, az wystaruje wegiel i elektrownia o ile wczesniej Wattenfall nie pokrzyzuje takiego scenariusza.

]]> Comment on 20081023 by kisiel2_nologo http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/2008/10/23/20081023/#comment-44 kisiel2_nologo Fri, 24 Oct 2008 11:57:34 +0000 http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/?p=1811#comment-44 Hej, > Czy mógłbyś zamieścić obrazek z WIG z oznaczeniem fal od początku jego żywota wraz z oznaczeniem fal co do stopnia? Sorki - nigdy nie gralem wedlug TFE. Jest za duzo mozliwosci interpretacji tego samego wykresu - duzo regulek i ciezko sie polapac. Lem sie tym zajmuje na swoim blogu: http://lemansa.wordpress.com Na UFO mozesz znalezc cos wartosciowego: http://ufoforum.forumotion.com/uniwersytet-futures-i-opcji-f1/ > Co myślisz o skuteczności wsparcia jakie daje prosta po dołkach od 1995, 2002. Inaczej wygląda to na wykresie liniowym w odróżnieniu od logarytmicznego co właśnie skomentowałeś. Sporo ludzi moze pod to grac wiec to zamiescilem. Wsparcia (teoretycznie mocne) lamia sie jak zapalki. Na WIG przy skali logarytmicznej wychodzi w okolicach 23k. Ale to tez jest subiektywne. Prognozy to jest zawsze loteria - wyjdzie (i bedziesz guru) albo nie wyjdzie (i wtedy nikt o Tobie nie uslyszy procz Twojego brokera). P.S. KGHM po 20.31 byl juz dzisaj :) Hej,

> Czy mógłbyś zamieścić obrazek z WIG z oznaczeniem fal od początku jego żywota wraz z oznaczeniem fal co do stopnia?

Sorki – nigdy nie gralem wedlug TFE. Jest za duzo mozliwosci interpretacji tego samego wykresu – duzo regulek i ciezko sie polapac.
Lem sie tym zajmuje na swoim blogu:
http://lemansa.wordpress.com
Na UFO mozesz znalezc cos wartosciowego:
http://ufoforum.forumotion.com/uniwersytet-futures-i-opcji-f1/

> Co myślisz o skuteczności wsparcia jakie daje prosta po dołkach od 1995, 2002. Inaczej wygląda to na wykresie liniowym w odróżnieniu od logarytmicznego co właśnie skomentowałeś.

Sporo ludzi moze pod to grac wiec to zamiescilem.
Wsparcia (teoretycznie mocne) lamia sie jak zapalki. Na WIG przy skali logarytmicznej wychodzi w okolicach 23k. Ale to tez jest subiektywne.

Prognozy to jest zawsze loteria – wyjdzie (i bedziesz guru) albo nie wyjdzie (i wtedy nikt o Tobie nie uslyszy procz Twojego brokera).

P.S.
KGHM po 20.31 byl juz dzisaj :)

]]> Comment on 20081023 by skrew http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/2008/10/23/20081023/#comment-43 skrew Fri, 24 Oct 2008 10:28:46 +0000 http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/?p=1811#comment-43 Hi Jelly No nie będę pisał po angilesku, I beg Your excuse. Czy mógłbyś zamieścić obrazek z WIG z oznaczeniem fal od początku jego żywota wraz z oznaczeniem fal co do stopnia? Liczę, że tak i z góry dzięki. Co myślisz o skuteczności wsparcia jakie daje prosta po dołkach od 1995, 2002. Inaczej wygląda to na wykresie liniowym w odróżnieniu od logarytmicznego co właśnie skomentowałeś. Hi Jelly
No nie będę pisał po angilesku, I beg Your excuse. Czy mógłbyś zamieścić obrazek z WIG z oznaczeniem fal od początku jego żywota wraz z oznaczeniem fal co do stopnia? Liczę, że tak i z góry dzięki. Co myślisz o skuteczności wsparcia jakie daje prosta po dołkach od 1995, 2002. Inaczej wygląda to na wykresie liniowym w odróżnieniu od logarytmicznego co właśnie skomentowałeś.

]]> Comment on 200801003 by skrew http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/2008/10/03/200801003/#comment-27 skrew Mon, 06 Oct 2008 13:01:28 +0000 http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/?p=1420#comment-27 KGHM po 46pln, o tym słyszałem, że zanosi się na to jeszcze gdy był po 120pln czy w tej okolicy. Znam takich z kombinatu co do dzisiaj trzymają akcje przyznane w ramach prywatyzacji. Jestem z Lubina. Gdy Krutin został prezesem opublikowano koszt jednostkowy produkcji tony miedzi na poziomie 12600pln. Zapachniało zmianami. Stało się jasne, że ten kto kreślił prognozę 46pln ma większą wiedzę i że zanosi się na jej spełnienie. Sugerowałem tym co jeszcze trzymają akcje z przydziału aby rozważali jakieś kroki. Czekają jednak na jeszcze lepsze czasy. A tym czasem na tablicach ogłoszeniowych do komunikowania się organizacji procowniczych, związkowych, zarządu z gawiedzią aż kipi. Widzę kłopoty przed KGHM, 46pln to może być w zigzaku dopiero fala (A). KGHM po 46pln, o tym słyszałem, że zanosi się na to jeszcze gdy był po 120pln czy w tej okolicy. Znam takich z kombinatu co do dzisiaj trzymają akcje przyznane w ramach prywatyzacji. Jestem z Lubina. Gdy Krutin został prezesem opublikowano koszt jednostkowy produkcji tony miedzi na poziomie 12600pln. Zapachniało zmianami. Stało się jasne, że ten kto kreślił prognozę 46pln ma większą wiedzę i że zanosi się na jej spełnienie. Sugerowałem tym co jeszcze trzymają akcje z przydziału aby rozważali jakieś kroki. Czekają jednak na jeszcze lepsze czasy. A tym czasem na tablicach ogłoszeniowych do komunikowania się organizacji procowniczych, związkowych, zarządu z gawiedzią aż kipi. Widzę kłopoty przed KGHM, 46pln to może być w zigzaku dopiero fala (A).

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