The WIG Index gained +3.01%:

We have experienced nice rally today with increased volume (but still small). However, we are still below last high and we have to wait and see if the swing breaks last high.

Warren Buffett is investing in railroads (here).

StockCharts are publishing detailed technical analysis course by Chip Anderson (here). It is not finished yet, but this series is quite interesting.

There is nice blog entry how to interpret volume divergences (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/171975-how-warren-buffett-is-smarter-than-the-g20]
[http://blogs.stockcharts.com/chartwatchers/ta101]
[http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/inside-a-volume-divergence]

The EURPLN generated a daily buy signal during this week:

Similarly, daily buy signal has been also generated on CHFPLN chart:

Obviously, the October’s sell signal (this post) was a false one and we can see daily uptrend now (of course this situation can change quite fast). Nevertheless, note the primary direction is still downwards and we should not trade against primary trend.

Note for Gregorski:
I also believe that Polish Zloty is still under-valued considering Poland’s economic situation, regardless to current rally. However, I have learned that feelings are usually bad idea in this kind of business, especially in Forex market. Therefore, I rely almost exclusively on stop-loss orders and money management.
You can find exact value forecasts here or here.
By the way – if anyone would know the future exchange rates for currency, he/she could use some the more speculative instruments and be very rich quickly.

The WIG Index fell -0.87%:

The general overview is still the same: daily and primary uptrend, bearish negative divergences and decreasing volume. Therefore, we have to wait for next market action.

Gold hits record high of 1100USD/oz (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-reaches-new-record-above-1100-2009-11-06]

The WIG Index gained +1.87%:

We have experienced quite a rally today.
It was obviously important for day traders, however it does not change the general situation and we simply have to wait for proper market actions.

The Association of Individual Investors in Poland published an interesting study of individualtraders (here, Polish only).

Sources:
[http://www.sii.org.pl/analizy/badania,i,rankingi,sii/ogolnopolskie,badanie,inwestorow,-,obi,2008.html (Polish only)]

The WIG Index gained +2.03%:

The market rallied. Volume was small and oscillators are quite bearish.
However, the general situation has not changed and nothing new can be said.

The WIG Index fell -2.35%:

Today’s volume was quite low. We shall also note the negative divergence (lower low) on RSI chart, thus both oscillators are bearish now. Also, some publishers are quite bearish now  (here).
Nevertheless, technically we are still in uptrend and important levels are still holding. We shall watch the market carefully now and act only on confirmed signals.

Sources:
[http://kuczynski.blogbank.pl/2009/10/28/coraz-wiecej-sygnalow-ostrzegawczych (via Google Language Tools)]

The WIG Index fell -0.36%:

The volume today was quite low and the close is quite neutral in relation to Friday. However, the CCI oscillator is clearly showing us negative divergence and that is not a good sign.

Thus, I would suggest to trade carefully until market re-confirms the North direction.

The EURPLN rallied this week, but the daily buy signal has not been not generated yet:

The CHFPLN chart is alike:

Both currencies showed us some volatility in past period.
Nevertheless, the primary trend is still down. As per technical approach, unless primary downtrend breaks, those rallies should be used to liquidate our long positions.

The WIG Index fell -0.87%:

The general outlook is quite confusing. The daily and primary uptrend are still intact, nevertheless oscillators are not confirming last high. The today’s volume was low and there are not many clues elsewhere.
In such setup it is the best to refrain from any transactions, until situation clarifies itself.

US stock markets did not look encouraging today (here).
However, S&P500 is still above the last low (ca.1020 from 2nd October) and primary uptrend is still intact.

An interesting paper on oil available resources (here).

Good analysis of moving average crossovers (here).

Sources:
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKuVVFkJXvso]
[http://marketsci.wordpress.com/2008/09/21/moving-average-crossovers-debunked]
[http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=squeezing-more-oil-edit-this]

The WIG Index gained +1.13%:

We have had quite volatile session today. The WIG Index has been hovering near the level of ca.38000 for the first half of the session and then rapidly rallied to ca.38600-38800.
Nevertheless, the general situation has not changed and we are still in daily and primary uptrend.

US market current technical analysis (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/169708-recent-market-weakness-the-technical-damage]

The WIG Index fell -2.09%:

Oscillators are on the edge of showing negative divergence and today’s fall has been accompanied by high volume, which is not a good sign.
However, we shall not act on feelings, but on market actions and primary trend is still intact.

Bearish US housing news (here).

Sources:
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aqNlTvgoZ6iA]

The WIG Index fell -1.84%:

The market continued its fall, however the daily uptrend has not been broken yet.
Technically speaking, we shall treat current swing only as a correction now.

Interesting article about China’s future role in world economy (here).

Three interesting lectures from George Soros via SeekingAlpha (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/168664-u-s-empire-in-decline-makes-way-for-china]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/168788-george-soros-on-the-global-economy-china-and-regulation]

Unfortunately, I was not able to put a chart today.

We closed the gap from Friday; today’s low might be a support for tomorrow, however it’s just guessing game.
Both, weekly- and daily-, uptrends are intact and we shall stick to our long positions as for now.

The EURPLN has generated daily sell signal during this week:

The CHFPLN also has made lower low (and daily sell signal has triggered):

Currencies are often confusing and we shall not expect anything in Forex market.
The primary trend is still down; nevertheless hoped for further PLN weakness, so we could sell our currency positions higher.

The WIG Index gained +1.49%:

Obviously, the buy signal has been finally generated accompanied with increased volume. Therefore, primary uptrend has been reconfirmed. The RSI confirms the rally (oscillator’s higher high), the CCI still stays neutral.

AppFund’s interpretation of current setup (here).

Few interesting points on US housing prices (here).

Sources:
[http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/existing-home-sales-fall-in-september-09]
[http://appfunds.blogspot.com/2009/10/korba-sie-zaciea.html (via Google Language Tools)]

The WIG Index closed quite neutrally +0.06%:

Again, the volume was quite low, neither the high is not confirmed by oscillators. In my (subjective) opinion that marks current breakout as unreliable.
However, actual uptrend is still intact and we shall hold long positions untill they are negated.

The WIG Index gained +0.71%:

Despite today’s gain, we are still in error margin. Also, I’m still quite reluctant of calling a new buy signal as breaking the important resistance should be accompanied by volume’s hike. The volume is quite low and also oscillators do not confirm new high.

Trystero has published quite good summary of incoming Polish Energy Group IPO (here).
There is another interesting paper. This offering looks interesting, however note there is no reliable way of controlling the risk.

Sources:
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering]
[http://blogi.ifin24.pl/trystero/2009/10/19/zanim-kupisz-akcje-pge/ (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://www.expander.pl/warto-wiedziec/wiadomosci/raporty-i-analizy-szczegoly,details,164 (via Google Language Tools)]

The WIG Index gained +0.91%:

The volume was quite low and market barely crossed the 39300; we also don’t have confirmation on oscillators.
Thus, in my opinion, we need more solid confirmation of this high, before we can signal buy.

Quite interesting findings on finance sector situation (here).

The EURPLN and CHFPLN generated daily sell signals today, nevertheless they still require confirmation:

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/167419-rally-or-no-rally-regional-banks-lag]

The WIG Index gained +1.40%:

Today’s volume was rather low; the oscillators are still giving mixed signals.
The price is near the important level of ca.39300.

S&P500 has made higher high, thus the odds are the rally will be continued.

The EURPLN continues its rally:

The CHFPLN chart looks alike:

Note, the primary downtrend is still intact. As per theory we shall use those rallies to liquidate our Euro positions.

The WIG Index lost -0.40%:

Oscillators are still giving mixed signals; volume is decreasing. Primary and daily trends are up; nevertheless, not much else can be said about current situation.
We have to simply wait for breaking the level of ca.39300 before next buy confirmation.

Oil is rallying this week (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-tap-fresh-one-year-high-atop-78-2009-10-16]

The WIG Index lost -0.89%:

The open was quite high, however the session finished with a loss. Thus, we should wait for confirmed breakout of 39300, before we signal buy.
Oscillators’ trends are quite confusing now.

Interesting article on hedge fund positions with embedded Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s report (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/166251-what-hedge-funds-are-buying-and-selling-now]

Unfortunately, I was not able to publish today’s chart.

Session was quite volatile and market gained +2.46%. Let’s see if market generates buy signal tomorrow.

The WIG Index fell -0.58%:

General situation is unclear and not much can be said right now.
As per uptrend we should have long positions now.

The WIG Index gain +0.64%:

The daily and weekly uptrend is still intact; however, situation is quite unclear. Oscillators are quite neutral and seem to confirm current stagnation.
The double bottom formation (this post) has not been negated; however, I don’t think we shall consider it further.
As per uptrend we should be in long positions now, also S&P500 seem to prefer the North direction and holds above 1000 points for a while. Nevertheless, always remember about money management and proper position sizing.

Central banks are moving out from USD (here).

Gold has reached record-high (here):

President Barack Obama has been awarded Nobel Peace Prize (here). Media comments this decision as quite controversal (here or here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/speculation-in-gold-futures-hits-record-high-2009-10-12]
[http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/peace/laureates/2009/press.html]
[http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,564303,00.html]
[http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704107204574469203986653982.html]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a4x9dIJsPn4U]
[http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:double_bottom_revers]

The previous weeks were quite interesting. Both currencies have generated daily buy signal.

The EURPLN has broken outside area 4.00-4.20:

The CHFPLN is near the important level of 2.80:

Obviously, we cannot say the primary downtrend has been broken. Nevertheless, there is place for quite strong swing; we might want to note the Fibonacci levels, but it’s only guessing game.

Note:
Charts are from Monday, 12th October, due to timing issues.

The EURPLN is still in the area 4.00-4.20:

The CHFPLN has broken last high of 2.76, but it’s still below the important level of 2.80:

I would not yet say the downtrend reversed, but the CHFPLN needs to be continuously observed now.

I’m going for holidays, there probably will be no updates for about two next weeks.

(picture shamelessly stolen from First Choice)

The WIG Index fell -0.36%:

The volume was quite low, but both oscillators seem to confirm current rally.

The current swing can be classified as confirmation of the support of 38000; however, it is only guessing game and we shall not build our strategy on that kind of forecasts.

G20 leaders are discussing security of the banking sector (here)

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/g20-leaders-target-bank-reforms-see-turnaround-2009-09-25]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G-20_major_economies]

The WIG Index fell -0.41%:

The market lost some points, but still above the level of 38000. Also, the yesterday’s gap has been closed. Oscillators are confirming the rally.
There is not much to say – we should be using our strategies to enter trades (always with stop-loss orders).

Quite interesting article about volume’s interpretation (here).

Prime Minister Donald Tusk criticized Fitch Ratings agency’s report, indicating the Poland’s state of public finances has worsened (here or here). Bossa.pl published an interesting article on objectivity in rating agencies (here).

Note:
Lately I have received few questions about polish mortgages.

The most common question is if to buy now. Generally speaking, I believe the answer is yes. Unfortunately, this is not so simple, but I will try to show my point of view.
Firstly, the Polish real estate market was not hit hard by crisis; it’s my subjective opinion, but compare -10~15% loss of value in Poland (here) vs. average -20~40% loss of real estate’s value in United States (here or here).
There is also government’s mortgage subsidization program ongoing (polish: “Rodzina na swoim”, here), which helps preventing further price drop. That gives us good economic base.
There are three most important things in every real estate’s investment: localization, localization and localization.
For investment purposes we shall consider developed cities (like Warsaw, Cracow, Wroclaw, Poznan, etc.) with already developed infrastructure, liquid real estate market and many potential tenants.
The real estate has also its maintenance costs – manager’s fees, reparations fund, rent-tax, land-tax, electricity and other utilities, etc. Even, when you pass most of those costs to inhabitants, there will be some amounts to be payed by you.
Also, don’t expect the property to be rented the full year – people tend to change places ca.2 years. Moreover, you should visit your property from time to time to check if it is not being damaged by tenants.
Another issue might be available credit options. Unfortunately, not many of us have enough resources to pay for a property in full. Good summary of available credit options can be found here.
Nowadays, the interest rates are quite high (4-6% + LIBOR), I believe they shall go lower soon. However I don’t think we will have good offers (like 1% + LIBOR) anytime soon.
Buying real estate is quite complex process and it requires considerable amount of time later. You shall not rush into it and it has to be well thought-out decision.
At first, check if you have enough resources and spare time. Make realistic assumptions – the property prices and average rents can be found in few portals (i.e.: szybko.pl, www.nieruchomosci.pl, www.emieszkania.com.pl or local agent www.nieruchomoscidolnoslaskie.pl) and try to forecast expected cashflow and calculate return of interest.
Being a rentier is not an easy, however the real estates offer a lifelong and stable income.

Sources:
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=afhO5.tZlbY8]
[http://blogi.bossa.pl/2009/09/23/agencje-„obiektywizmu-czy-agencje-„sprzecznych-interesow (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://www.parkiet.com/artykul/7,851975_Tusk__Fitch_nieadekwatny.html (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://investmenttools.com/median_and_average_sales_prices_of_houses_sold_in_the_us.htm#median]
[http://www.egospodarka.pl/44808,Rynek-nieruchomosci-w-Polsce-IX-2009,1,39,1.html (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/159037-lehman-s-130-billion-loss-went-out-with-the-market]
[http://www.rodzinanaswoim.pl (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://www.najlepszykredyt.info/pozyczkihipoteczne]
[http://www.swing-trade-stocks.com/stock-chart-volume.html]

The WIG Index gain +0.77%:

As per morning’s note (this post) the buy signal has been generated. We should also note oscilators’ positive divergences and quite high volume.

The target from potential double bottom formation is ca.40700. This formation is quite reliable – only 3% failure rate after breakout (Encyclopedia of
Chart Patterns, T.N.Bulkowski).

Sources:
[http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:double_bottom_revers]

The WIG Index gain +4.19%:

The technical outlook changed dramatically – oscillators have made higher high and we can see positive divergence now. Todays rally was accompanied with huge volume with is good sign as well.

Nevertheless, the last high (ca.38000) has not been broken yet (price is still in error margin) and there was no buy signal generated today. Therefore, our descending triangle formation has not been negated yet.

However, tomorrow’s high open would generate buy signal and negate bearish formation. We might also consider double bottom formation then (with target ca.40700, hourly chart):

However, I believe we should place our buy orders only when current high is taken.

More troubles for banks ahead (here).

Note from 2009/09/23:
It seems today’s open was quite high (it’s ca.38700 now). Therefore, the descending triangle formation has been negated and buy signal has been generated.

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/162634-more-trouble-brewing-for-banking-sector]
[http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:descending_triangle]
[http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:double_bottom_revers]

The WIG Index fell -0.51%:

Again, not much can be told about current setup.

The chart looks bearish (subjective opinion), but the market hasn’t decided direction yet and we have to wait.

Some thoughts about few indicators (i.a.: +20%, net flow) (here).

US companies seek for potential mergers (here)

Poland might start increasing interest rates (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/merger-stirrings-bode-well-for-stocks-sp-says-2009-09-21]
[ http://seekingalpha.com/article/161760-poland-higher-interest-rates-coming]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/162316-busting-yet-another-market-indicator-myth]

The breakout was retraced quite fast and both currencies seem to be back to their old areas.

The EURPLN went back below the resistance of ca.4.20 and is still above psychological barrier of 4.00:

The CHFPLN did not break resistance of 2.80:

In my (subjective) opinion the breakouts should be qualified as fake ones and we shall still wait for confirmation.

I am unable to post new chart today.

However, not much have changed and we are still in the area of 38000 – 35700. We have to simply wait for market action, before we decide what to do next.

The Wig Index gain +0.79%

The overall picture is quite bearish, but we still did not generate sell signal. We have simply to wait and react accordingly.

The WIG Index gain +1.79%:

Not much new can be said now. We might recognize descending triangle formation, which is quite bearish pattern (with target level ca.32100). However, we are still balancing on the support line (ca.35700) and the sell signal has not been generated yet.

On the other side, the US market shows very positive signs as S&P500 has made higher high.

Sources:
[http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:descending_triangle]

The WIG Index gain +0.30%:

The sell signal was not generated today and we have to wait for proper market action – everything else is just guessing game.

Ben Bernanke declares recession is very likely over, however the economy’s recover will be very slow (here). Also, his published crisis’ remarks are worth-reading (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bernanke-declares-the-recession-over-2009-09-15]
[http://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20090821a.htm]

The WIG Index lost -2.09%:

The WIG Index is on the edge on another sell signal. The oscillators are showing negative divergence, but we have to wait for support (ca.35700) breakout.
There is no reason for being into stocks, when market shows weakness.

Nevertheless, it’s quite subjective, but I won’t signal primary trend reversal unless we break the level of 29200.

We should also note the breakout on EURPLN chart:

And also on CHFPLN chart:

We might be exiting the consolidation now, however we shall wait for confirmation.

Situation has not changed since last post.
EURPLN is still in the area 4.00 – 4.20:

The CHFPLN chart looks alike:

Thus, we shall still wait for market action.

Unfortunately, I was not able to put a new chart today.

Nevertheless, situation is still unclear – it such cases I prefer to be out of the market. We should wait for confirmed breakout of the level of 38000 (yesterday’s high) or 35700 (last week’s low).

The WIG Index fell -1.37%:

From technical point of view we have daily buy signal (crossing the level of 37700). Also, the S&P500 has made higher high. Form other side, the oscillators are showing negative divergence.

Personally, I’m not sure what to do and I don’t think the situation is clear enough, but we should put emotions aside.

Welcome in 300th entry in this blog.
The WIG Index gain +0.73%:

Current setup can be interpreted in many ways – we might as well be confirming the resistance (ca.37800) before continuation of fall, or continuing the long-term rally.
In such situation it is generally better to stay out of market and wait.

Let’s take a look at global view of the Polish market:

Since last global review (this post), we have gained quite a number of points. As can be noted, we are near the important level of 50% retracement (ca.39500). Technically speaking – the primary uptrend has not been negated yet.
However, we have gained almost +100% in little more than half a year, without any major correction and that can worry us.

Economic outlook seems to be much better than half a year ago. There are positive news from global economy. Bailouts are quite controversial and their long-term effects are yet to be known, but governments restored at least some liquidity in the market.

As for Poland – our country proved to be quite resistant to world crisis. In my opinion there were several reasons: strong internal market (ca.70% of Poland’s GDP), lack of more complex (and leveraged) financial instruments, conservative mortgage policy, general weakness of PLN, cheap and qualified labor, immigrants’ money transfers, etc. Poland was one of the few countries who did not formally reported recession and that is very good sign for stock market.

And for the end – Polish History in 10 minutes clip.

Sources:
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Quld5950v6w]
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product]

The WIG Index fell -0.19%:

The daily trend is still broken and there is no technical reason to be long now.

The USDEUR falls to lowest levels in 2009 (here).

Note:
It seems the Contact Form (option in the right menu) is becoming quite popular and I have got few questions on my mail to answer. I will keep answering them when possible.

First of all – I don’t try to forecast the market. I don’t think it’s possible to do it right repetitively for longer. Instead – let’s just follow the trend and use our money management rules. The maximum capital we risk in one transaction is 1-2% by book. And don’t be disappointed by losing in 2 of 3 transactions – it’s pretty OK (at least for me), just focus on squeezing those profitable ones, which is hard enough.

Second question – PLN vs. EUR, CHF or JPN. Unfortunately, the PLN is quite volatile currency. Current trend favours South direction and not much else can be said.

Sources:
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGI400UnO83c]

The WIG Index gain +3.15%:

Today’s session was quite volatile, but the Index gained some points. However, the daily trend is still broken and the situation is not clear.

There is not much to say – current setup is risky and we have to wait for market action.

Gold reaches 1000 USD (here).

China market is still in downtrend (here or Shanghai Composite).

Sources:
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAgAWSs_xezk]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-data-storm-may-confirm-recovery-2009-09-07]

Last Tuesday we have noticed quite aggressive weakness of Polish Zloty; however, both currencies have returned to the level before this hike now.

The EURPLN is still above psychological barrier of 4.00:

The CHFPLN is near 2.70 now:

We are still waiting for market action; however, as per primary downtrend we shall expect fall continuation.

Note:
I got few questions how to fast and cheaply convert EUR or GBP to PLN from abroad.

The banks in Poland have spreads ca.6%.The currency exchange bureaus are usually cheaper, but any market timing is quite hard there.
This is one-way transaction, you convert to PLN and create savings account the same or next day. Generally speaking, don’t even try to speculate with 3% commision – any reasonable strategy is killed with so high fees.
I personally use the eMax EUR account from mBank; spreads are a little bit smaler and there is no fee for receiving international transfer. The most important – conversion is done immediately when online access is used. The account is free of charge and you can have no fees on transfers when you register destination account before (o.5PLN with random transfer).
If you don’t mind please use this link for registering with mBank – there is some partner system involved and any donation is welcomed.

The WIG Index gained +0.51%:

Both oscillators have made lower low and confirmed the fall. The volume was quite low, which can be interpreted as market’s hesitance.
The primary uptrend is still intact, but it is not possible to tell if we rebounce now or fell again. We don’t want to be in the market now – we might lose the up-move and few great trades, but protection of the capital always come first.

Unfortunately, I could not publish new chart this Thursday.

Nevertheless, not much has changed. The daily trend has been broken and we should wait until it reverses (it depends on reader’s strategy of course).

The WIG Index fell -4.25%:

Unfortunately, the first scenario (yesterday’s post) proved to be right and the fell was continued. The RSI oscillator has made lower low and therefore confirmed the fell. The volume was quite high over last two sessions.

The weekly uptrend is still intact, but we might want to wait until daily trend recovers and only observe the market now.

The WIG Index fell -1.53%:

The daily sell signal has been generated and that should be warning sign for us. The oscillators do not confirm the fall yet, but considering US market (S&P500 fell -2.21%), we can expect downward move continuation. Volume is quite hard to interpret lately.

We might also interpret current setup quite differently – the market will test the level of 36600 (previous higher high) and it will provide strong support. In my opinion such scenario is quite probable; however, this is quite emotional approach and we better stay out of trades until the daily trend will reverse back to uptrend.

We need to remember, out biggest concern should always be protecting the current gains, not to outsmart the market.

The economists say the recession in US is over (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/recession-is-over-economists-say-2009-09-01]

The WG Index fell -0.73%:

The market almost generated daily sell signal. Neither oscillators nor volume suggest further fall, but most of European markets finished on red. In my opinion we shall be careful now, but until daily trend is broken we want to enter long positions.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index fell -6.74% (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-futures-lower-as-china-sinks-again-2009-08-31-9060]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SHCOMP%3AIND]

Both currencies are near their lowest levels from several months.
The EURPLN is still above the psychological support of 4.00:

The CHFPLN chart is alike:

As per downtrend, we shall rather expect breaking those supports and continuation of fall.
However, the Forex market is never straightforward and we should wait for proper market actions.

The WIG Index gained +1.04%:

Not much can be said.  The uptrend is intact and nothing suggest reversal.

Poland’s GDP grew by 1.4% by year-to-year. Nominal GDP amounted to 326.638,6 billion PLN (here).

Sources:
[http://polishmarket.com.pl/document/:20946,Polands+GDP+grew+by+11+in+Q2+2009.html]

The WIG Index fell -0.99%:

The Monday’s gap has been closed, but it didn’t change general situation. Last daily low is ca.34800 and the market is still well above that level. The volume has been slightly increased, but oscillators don’t suggest any trend reversal as of now.

We have simply to wait and observe the market. As per uptrend we shall be still in long positions (but always with the money management rules in mind).

Interesting daily term from investopedia – (Permanent Portfolio). More information here.

Sources:
[http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/permanent-portfolio.asp]
[http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2008/March/permanent-portfolio-fund.html]

The WIG Index fell -2.47%:

We are still above the Monday’s gap. The general situation looks bullish, both oscillators seem to confirm the north direction and the uptrend is intact.
Nevertheless, be careful when daily trend is broken – catching failing knives can be quite painful.

It seems Ben Bernanke will be re-nominated as FED chairman (here or here).

International Monetary Fund assessed Poland’s economy (here).

Sources:
[http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5imIFLnRV6G6bHHtmLbA8OA4AF03gD9AAEDQO0]
[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-sirota/how-to-talk-about-the-ren_b_269881.html]
[http://polishmarket.com.pl/document/:20921,IMF+completes+assessment+of+Polands+situation.html]

Unfortunately, I did not have any chart tool available today.

The WIG Index has made higher high and new buy signal has been generated. We are above the Monday’s gap.
In such setups we should not be guessing when the market will correct itself, but just try to enter long positions.

The WIG Index gained +2.19%:

Buy signal has been generated as new high has been made. Oscillators seem to confirm new high now, volume is still hard to interpret.
Our positions should be already in money. Make sure you move your defence orders.

The level of 38800 could provide some resistance, but it is just guessing.

Oil is rallying again (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-natural-gas-continue-on-different-paths-2009-08-24]

During this week there were no significant changes in general technical setup of both currencies.
EURPLN is still in the area 4.20-4.00:

The CHFPLN is still in the area 2.65-2.80, chart does not differ too much:

As per downtrend, we should rather expect the support breakouts and fall continuation. Nevertheless, there is no reliable way to forecast currencies and we have to simply wait for market action.

The EURPLN (here) and CHFPLN (here) analyses from ForexPros portal.

Sources:
[http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-pln-technical?period=86400]
[http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/chf-pln-technical?period=86400]

The WIG Index gained +3.51%:

Today’s rally has broken the level of 36700 and generated buy signal, confirming weekly uptrend is intact. Also, the oscillators have reversed theirs downtrend.

Common explanation for today’s gain is that JP Morgan advised investors to buy central European equities (here).
Investors, who were not shaken out from positions, made quite a profit.

Sources:
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a0z.p6HSjan0]

The WIG Index gained +2.89%:

Today was quite volatile session – few days ago the market was at the edge of fall, today we are almost facing new high.

Nevertheless, the general situation still hasn’t changed. We are still in the area between 34600 and 36700 – breaking one of those levels would generate signal.

The WIG Index gained +1.03%:

Not much can be said about current setup. The oscillators are suggesting the fall, the volume is quite hard to interpret.
We are on the edge of daily sell signal, but the support of 34600 still holds.

We should simply ignore our emotions and wait for market decision. Polish market seems to be quite strong in comparison to bigger and more developed markets (i.e.: S&P500, DAX or SHANGHAI).

Interesting analysis of some other assets (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/156950-asset-class-review-crude-gold-and-the-dollar]

I was unable to post new chart; nevertheless not much has happened, aside for quite small volume.
We still have to wait for proper market action.

The WIG Index fell -2.42%:

The oscillators are showing negative divergences and also the S&P500 has broken its support (ca.990).
The current setup looks quite bearish, but the price is still above daily support (ca.34600) and we cannot generate daily sell signal.

Nevertheless, we should be careful tomorrow – if we have any long positions make sure the defence orders are in place.  We are not able to say how deep this correction will be, but until our shares are in uptrend we shouldn’t drop them.

The China market has fallen quite rapidly lately (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/156308-global-markets-in-review-has-pullback-begun-with-china]

Both currencies are in downtrend, but not much has happened in the currencies since last post.
The EURPLN is still above psychological 4 PLN per 1 EUR:

The CHFPLN chart is alike:

Good news for polish mortgage owners – the prices of properties seem to stabilize (here).

Sources:
[http://dom.money.pl/wiadomosci/poradniki/artykul/ceny;mieszkan;stoja;w;miejscu;wroca;kupujacy,230,0,519398.html (via Google Language Tools)]

The WIG Index fell -0.52%:

Higher high has been made, thus buy signal has been generated. Nevertheless, I believe we shall be careful and use wide stop losses together with our money management rules. Oscillators and volume are quite confusing.

Also, out target from inverse-head-and-shoulders pattern from May (this post) has been reached (90% of projected swing size).

The bossa.pl portal has published interesting series (part one, part two, part three, part four and part five) on mentioned Blackstar Funds paper (this post).

Some thoughts on US market (here).

Sources:
[http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_b]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue]
[http://blogi.bossa.pl/?p=1075 (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://blogi.bossa.pl/?p=1081 (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://blogi.bossa.pl/?p=1084 (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://blogi.bossa.pl/?p=1086 (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://blogi.bossa.pl/?p=1089 (via Google Language Tools)]

The WIG Index gained +2.20%:

Quite volatile session. Morning power failure resulted in market’s open delay (here) and the session opened around noon.
General situation is confusing – volume trend line is hard to draw and oscillators are showing negative divergences. As per uptrend we should be still in long positions, however we should be careful now.

Some thoughts about current market (here).

The Elliot Waves are forecasting correction (here).

Source:
[http://www.wprost.pl/ar/169024/Koniec-awarii-na-warszawskiej-gieldzie/ (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/155674-8-thoughts-about-current-markets]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/155686-elliot-wave-step-aside-from-long-positions]

The WIG Index has continued fall from yesterday and lost -0.18% eventually:

The WIG Index is on the edge of generating the daily sell signal, however the level of 34500 has not been broken yet. The volume and oscillators are quite confusing.

Not much can be said right now – we have to wait for market actions.

The Wall Street Journal’s survey of economists’ expectations, showed the recession is over (here).

US Treasury Notes’ yields are rising (here).

Sources:
[http://biznes.onet.pl/ekonomisci-dlawsj-recesja-zakonczona,18491,3027676,1,news-detal (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/155112-rising-treasury-yields-some-thoughts]

Unfortunately, I was not able to post new entry.

The WIG Index has made higher high, nevertheless it finished quite low with -1.49% loss.

The WIG Index gained +1.13%:

There is not much to say – the market seems to be pretty strong, but we shall not expect anything. As per uptrend, we are playing only long positions.

Hedge funds have still not recovered despite quite big swings lately (here).

US traders are betting on increased volatility (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/many-hedge-managers-still-under-water-data-show-2009-08-10]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=anWx7LRgrFtc]

The EURPLN has given clear sell signal:

We should also note the next psychological barrier for EURPLN around 4 PLN per EUR.

The CHFPLN chart looks alike:

Therefore, both currencies are technically in downtrend. Target prices are as per Fibo levels, however there is no reliable way to forecast in Forex market.

The polish government announced, that the membership of Poland in the euro zone in 2012 is not possible (here). Next date has not been set yet.

Sources:
[http://www.egospodarka.pl/43348,Tydzien-32-2009-03-09-08-2009,1,24,1.html#Pkom (via Google Language Tools)]

The WIG Index gained +1.27%:

The gain has been accompanied by quite small volume, nevertheless the uptrend is still strong.
As per technical point of view, it might be a good moment to enter trades.

The WIG Index gained +0.87%:

The market fell few percent over last few session, but the uptrend is still strong.
We are never able to say where market is going next; therefore we should not think too much, but try to enter the market.

The WIG Index fell -1.94% today:

Monday’s higher high generated buy signal. Current situation is promising; the volume generally is increasing with gains and the oscillators are confirming the higher highs.
Not much else can be told – use your own strategies to gain some exposure to the stock market.

Some thoughts about current global setup (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/152874-is-this-a-secondary-or-primary-bull-market]

The WIG Index rallied for +4%:

The weekly buy signal has been generated. The size of this swing is quite large, but we shall not think of it – market makes higher high and that is a reason to buy.

All orders are to be cancelled on July’s last session in this week (here). Thus, all orders will have to be entered again the following Monday (or scheduled during the weekend).

I am going for a short trip, thus there won’t be any updates for the next few days.

(picture shamelessly stolen from here)

Sources:
[http://www.gpw.pl/zrodla/ogieldzie/regulacje/uch_zarz/09/310_2009.doc (via Google Language Tools)]

The WIG Index gained +0.56%:

The market is in correction. As per daily and weekly trend we shall treat this as a opportunity to enter positions  (but always place proper defence order).

Google will have real competitor as Microsoft and Yahoo are about to sign a partnership deal (here).

US housing is looking better (here).

Housing bubble in China (here).

Very valuable and interesting paper on trend following strategies (here). Must-a-read.

Sources:
[http://www.trendfollowing.com/whitepaper/Does_trendfollowing_work_on_stocks.pdf]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/152103-who-will-pay-for-china-s-housing-bubble]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/152000-microsoft-yahoo-deal-struck-will-be-announced-soon]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/152107-u-s-housing-are-better-days-ahead]

The WIG Index lost -1.24%:

Nothing new an be said – we are still in strong weekly and daily uptrends. We should be playing long now, but mind money management (as always).

Some analysis of US markets (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/151713-tuesday-outlook-bulls-remain-in-control]

The WIG Index finished quite neutrally +0.16%:

We have made new high and therefore new buy signal has been generated.
Nothing new can be said – we shall simply use our strategies to enter trades.

As per currencies – I think we can say the CHFPLN has generated sell signal today and we are waiting for confirmation from EURPLN.

Some thoughts about high-frequency trading (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/151430-high-frequency-trading-we-fear-what-we-do-not-understand]

The EURPLN is the lowest since roughly half a year:

The CHFPLN chart is alike:

Both currencies are in interesting setup. I would say the price is still in error margin, but the sell signal is very close (especially on CHFPLN chart).

The WIG Index gained +1.39%:

The WIG Index is continuing its rally from 13th July, showing exceptional market strength. Both the volume and oscillators seem to confirm the gains. The technical situation is promising at least.

If you were entering near 32000 points (daily buy signal) your positions should be in the money already and it might be a good idea to protect them after so quick gain.

Timothy Geithner urged lawmakers to review the bank regulatory reform program, so this legislation can be approved by year-end (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/geithner-congress-must-pass-bank-reform-2009-07-24]
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timothy_Geithner]

The WIG registered quite a rally in the last couple of sessions:

The daily buy signal has been generated 15th July, around 30000. This Monday also weekly buy signal has been generated. Thus, we shall consider opening new transactions.
Always use stop-loss orders and proper money management – if we are wrong we shouldn’t lose much of our capital.

Quite interesting story about stolen code from Goldman Sachs (here). I raises some concerns among bloggers (here).

Some thoughts about Ben Bernanke’s strategy (here).

Additional note:
The EURPLN and CHFPLN currencies are in interesting setup now. We might have strong sell signal quite soon (the price is still in error margin).

Sources:
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrlQSMCx-aE]
[http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/is-goldman-stealing-100-million-per-trading-day/]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/150440-bernanke-s-conundrum]

The EURPLN is close to the important level of 4.30:

The CHFPLN is close to the important level of 2.80:

(charts were generated Friday, thus today’s setup might be slightly different)

The currencies are in very interesting situation. After few months of consolidation we have a chance to see important market actions (the possible breakout of mentioned above levels), thus watch them closely.

The WIG Index lost -1.10%:

The polish market is on edge of generating daily sell signal. I don’t think we should be entering any positions now. The daily trend has been broken and both oscillators are confirming that.

Few good videos for weekend (here).

Some guessing game about polish market (here).

Bob Farrell’s 10 Rules for Investing (here).

As I’m going for holidays, there probably will be no updates for about two next weeks.

(picture shamelessly stolen from Iho Ohi blog)

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/148031-the-week-s-top-videos-pete-peterson-boone-pickens-jeff-saut-and-more]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a4lgRahu0ddY]
[http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/08/bob-farrells-10.html]

The WIG Index gained +0.66%:

We had high volume, therefore we have changed the way we draw trendline on volume.

The area of 29600 holds. Nevertheless, it is still not a reason to enter long positions as the daily trend has been broken.

The WIG Index fell -0.32% today:

The market is close to daily sell signal, but we don’t have confirmation yet. The oscillators negative divergences are confirming the downtrend.

It situation like those it is the best to be in the money, but it does not mean we should panic out of our positions. Our defence orders will tell us when to get out.

The WIG Index finished with 0.01% gain:

The today’s volume was quite high (but still in decline), but the finish was quite neutral. We should also note potential head-and-shoulders pattern with target price ca.26000.
Not much else can be said, we have to wait for proper market actions.

Some thoughts about recession in global view (here).

Quite interesting article about current situation (here)

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/147140-this-recession-isn-t-over-now-for-the-hard-part]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/147320-how-to-play-a-market-pullback]

Quite significant session as we touched the last daily lower low. The entry is delayed; nevertheless, the daily trend is still broken and we should not do anything, but increase our defence orders if necessary.

I’m going for holidays next week, thus there won’t be any updates till last week of July.

Both currencies are quite interesting. The EURPLN has fallen quite dynamically:

The CHFPLN chart is alike:

Daily sell signal has been generated. The daily trend has been clearly broken and the weekly downtrend is still intact.
That gives us quite strong bearish setup and we shall expect continuation of fall as per momentum basics.

However, keep in mind the currencies can be very surprising and after last period of stagnation I would personally wait (subjective opinion) for confirmed breakout of last important low (4.20 for EURPLN, 2.78 for CHFPLN) before entering any trades.

The WIG Index fell -0.49%:

The general situation is not encouraging. Volume is still declining and the oscillators are confirming lower highs.
The market is difficult now and we should not expect average investor to make profits. Thus, we wait.

It was not possible for me to update this entry. However, not much have changed – the daily trend remains broken, the weekly is still intact.
We should not open any new positions now, therefore the worst could happen is the closure of old positions on defence orders.

The WIG Index gained +0.89%:

Today’s session did not generate any signals. We still have broken daily trend, small volume and negative divergences on both oscillators.
Thus, we only wait and observe.

The EURPLN registered quite significant drop today:

The same on CHFPLN chart:

It might be the rapid continuation of primary downtrend, but we should be careful and wait for market’s confirmation.

The WIG Index lost -0.35%:

The market lost all of its gains in the last several minutes of trading. The volume was higher than yesterday, but still low. Oscillators are confirming the fall.

General situation does not encouraging and we should not think of new positions unless the daily trend recover.

Bernard Madoff has been sentenced to 150 years in prison (here). Video report here.

Some thoughts about USD in long term (here).

Sources:
[http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124604151653862301.html]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/146159-is-the-dollar-dead-in-the-long-run]
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3eU4FI4yEvI]

The WIG Index gained +0.87% with quite small volume:

Nothing new can be said about general situation.
The small volume of fall can be positive sign, but the broken daily trend and downtrend in oscillators are discouraging from entering any trades.

Opinion poll results for the US stock market (here).

Please keep in mind, that some further entries can be delayed, due to personal reasons. It is quite hard to always keep with daily publications without any organized resources and process, especially when trading is not the main source of income.

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/145922-stock-market-buy-hold-or-sell-poll-results]

The EURPLN has fallen few points in this week:

The CHFPLN registered quite fast drop on Wednesday; there are rumors about Swiss National Bank intervening (here):

Nothing really changed in our situation. Both currencies’ charts are still confusing.

Nevertheless, I’m still quite bearish on those currencies, especially on the CHFPLN. Both, Swiss National Bank and National Bank of Poland have intervened to weaken the Swiss Franc and those are a powerful allies on polish mortgage owners side. However, this is my own and very subjective opinion.

Sources:
[http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8575219]

The WIG Index gained +0.54%:

The volume was very small and it seems the market is undecided. The broken daily trend, decreasing volume and falling oscillators are not encouraging to enter any trades.

Brett Steenbarger published quite interesting article about his experiences as traders’ coach (here).

Lunch with Warren Buffett has been sold for 1.68 million USD on eBay auction (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/145317-five-mistakes-of-developing-traders]
[http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=290325279833]

The WIG Index fell -0.62%:

General outlook is still confusing: clear reversal on daily trend (with oscillators’ confirmations), but weekly uptrend is still intact.

Not much else can be said. Depending on your strategy, you might want to be out of market or trying to ride current swing. However, I’m rather careful now.

The WIG Index gain +1.30%:

Situation is quite confusing. The weekly uptrend is still intact, but the daily trend has been reversed and it’s confirmed by oscillators.

I don’t think we shall enter any new positions until the market starts to recover and daily trend is up again (but this is subjective opinion). Depending on trader’s strategy there can be few approaches to setups like those, but always mind the proper money management.

There is an interesting interview with former financial advisor (here) working in bank.

Monetary Policy Council lowered interest rates by 0.25% to 3.50% for the main reference rate (here).

Sources:
[http://wyborcza.pl/biznes/1,99154,6742264,Skad_taka_pazernosc_bankow_.html?as=1&ias=4 (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://gielda.onet.pl/0,1996076,wiadomosci.html (via Google Language Tools)]

The WIG Index fell -0.26%:

The daily sell signal was generated on Monday, but the weekly uptrend is still intact. The volume increased over last few sessions, which is not a good sign. Both oscillators have made lower low, therefore divergences confirmed the fall.

We might also want to draw Head-and-Shoulders formation on 1-hour chart with target price ca.29000 (90% of the move has been already reached):

The fell was very dynamic and unfortunately, some of our positions were surely liquidated. However, as the daily uptrend has been broken we should not attempt to enter the market immediately.

Current situation is quite dangerous and catching falling knives usually is painful.

The European Commission will take a decision on the opening of the excessive deficit procedure against the Poland (here).

Sources:
[http://biznes.onet.pl/0,1994597,wiadomosci.html (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://www.chartpatterns.com/headandshoulders.htm]
[http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fallingknife.asp]

Monday’s session was very interesting one; daily sell signal has been generated.
However, due to personal reasons, I was not able to publish a entry.

The session was quite volatile and showed us why risk management is important:

Some interesting links from weekend:

• Commodities correction (here).
• USD breakout (here).
• Defaults of US companies (here).
• Three banks closed in US (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/144287-commodities-today-the-correction-has-arrived]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/144297-u-s-dollar-breakout-on-the-horizon]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/144406-bankruptcies-of-large-u-s-corporations-soar]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/georgia-north-carolina-banks-closed-by-regulators]

The EURPLN slowly, but steadily continues its rally:

The CHFPLN chart is similar:

Both currencies are next to generating the buy signal.
I find current setup quite confusing, but the price is what counts, not our beliefs.

The Swiss National Bank intends to lower three-month CHF LIBOR rate to ca.0.25% (currently: 0.40%) (here).

Sources:
[http://www.finanse.egospodarka.pl/41800,Kurs-franka-do-euro-SNB-za-oslabieniem,1,48,1.html (via Google Language Tools)]

The WIG Index gained +1.53%:

The volume was quite high today, however we should not forget today was Triple Witching day. We did not cross the 30800 today and that is a good sign.
However, the general situation is unclear and we have to wait for market action. Of course, weekly uptrend is intact and we should still have long positions.

Holder portal has published funds buy/sell transaction ratio in May (here):

It seems the mutual funds were selling shares in May, but the polish pension funds (OFE) were buying them.

Quite interesting S&P500 analysis (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/144187-s-p-500-fundamental-and-technical-convergence]
[http://www.holder.com.pl/fm.shtml?id=7231&fm=11154&c=30348801004 (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Otwarty_fundusz_emerytalny (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/triplewitchinghour.asp]

The WIG Index fell -0.14%:

We are very close to generate daily sell signal (ca.30800), but the price is still within error margin. The volume today was surprisingly low and that might mean the market is undecided.
Nevertheless, the weekly uptrend is intact and everything else is just guessing game.

Over last couple of sessions some of our positions were probably shaken out and considering general uncertainty, we should not attempt to reenter them immediately.

The WIG Index significantly fell -2.09%:

The volume is barely higher, but it’s still decreasing. Oscillators show negative divergences as lower low were made.
The overall sentiment is rather negative, but as for now there are no technical signs of trend reversal on wider time frames.

There is an interesting tool – McClellan Oscillator (here).

Good summarizing of general situation in US; few self-explaining charts can be also found there (here).

Sources:
[http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2009/06/16/mcclellan-oscillator-the-trend-is]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/143661-looking-at-this-recession-in-a-historical-context]

The WIG Index opened quite low, but recovered most of its loss and finished -0.40%:

Nothing new can be said – there are no technical sings of trend reversal, but the volume tells us to be careful.
We have to simply wait for market actions.

FED might consider selling options to ease an imbalance in interest rate derivatives (here).

Interesting technical view on the S&P500 (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/flip-flopping-moving-averages-point-to-momentum]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avcmU5N8uBY0]

The WIG Index finished with quite a loss -1.38%:

The weekly trend is intact and therefore we should still be in long positions now.

The gains are not accompanied by high volume and that might be a warning sign.
The only thing we can control is risk; thus, if you are entering transactions now, make sure the profit/risk ratio is high enough.
However, I assume most of our capital is already invested and our positions are mostly in the money. That gives us some risk-buffer in case of trend reversal.

Interesting analysis about markets in Europe (here).

Quite interesting study about investor’s behaviour (here).

Thoughts and indicators for US economy (here). Buy signal on DJIA (here).

More on USD (here and here) and treasury bonds (here).

Lem’s blog won’t be free anymore. New site available here.

Sources:
[http://www.qaib.com/showresource.aspx?URI=advisoreditionfreelook&Type=FreeLook]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/142965-u-s-indicators-on-track-for-q4-economic-recovery]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/143023-a-socratic-dialogue-fearing-the-collapse-of-u-s-treasury-bond-prices]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/143034-will-the-u-s-dollar-crash]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abKnXn3puSjY]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/143180-preview-from-europe-markets-tread-water-on-low-volume]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/143217-long-term-market-trends-a-djia-buy-signal-indicator]

The EURPLN does not have clear situation:

The CHFPLN chart also shows a lot of indecision:

Both currencies have been moving within the same areas for several weeks.
Not much can be said until the price breaks one of those levels.

The WIG Index gained +1.40%:

The weekly buy signal has been generated. Today’s session was a nice rally, however it was not confirmed by volume.
The volume is decreasing, the oscillators are not giving any signals.

Generally speaking, current situation is unclear. Nevertheless, the price is the most important and we play without emotions and forecasting. Not much else can be said right now.

We have had quite a rally today:

The WIG Index gained impressive +1.90% and it’s at the level of previous high. Oscillators are confusing, however the volume is clearly decreasing.

The price is the most important and weekly uptrend is still intact. However, the volume does not confirm today’s rally and I believe we should be careful now.
The most of our positions was made at lower levels and generally should be in the money now. Thus, the risk of trend reversal is bearable.

California Budget Crisis explained by John Steward (here).

Update from 2009/06/11:
I forgot to mention there is no session this Thursday.

There is quite interesting article about China and their role (here).

Sources:
[http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=230057&title=youre-welcome-california-budget]
[http://longterm.bblog.pl/wpis,chiny;nie;uratuja;swiata,26125.html (via Google Language Tools)]

The WIG Index gained +1.58%:

Well, not much can be said as per today’s session either. Volume is still decreasing, the interpretation of oscillators is too subjective.
As per weekly uptrend we should be entering positions (mind stop-losses) and hoping the trend won’t reverse. Everything else is just guessing game.

The US unemployment reports can be tricky (here). Good summarizing of unemployment values can be found here.

Below are view-per-day stats from blog:

It seems technical analysis is all around us

Sources:
[http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2008/12/08/employment-report-much-worse-than-reported/]
[http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2009/06/08/jobless-rate-soars-technology-to-blame/]
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_analysis]

The WIG Index fell significantly -1.80%:

The general situation has not changed and it’s hard to tell anything new. The volume was low today and that can be encouraging sign.

We not trying to forecast the market – until the market significantly breaks the level of 29000 the uptrend is intact and potential correction can be a good place to enter few trades.

Quite optimistic article about recent moves in Baltic Dry Index (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/141794-baltic-dry-index-rise-indicates-good-economic-tidings]
[http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm]

The EURPLN shows quite unclear situation:

The CHFPLN chart is not helping either:

Both currencies become more problematic to analyze. The pattern of LL & LH is not so obvious now and it’s generally hard to say anything about current situation. Weekly downtrend has not been negated yet and odds favor the price fall.

We shall also consider trend reversal. The charts show the potential targets for upward breakout from symmetrical triangle formations. However, triangles usually form during a trend as a continuation pattern. Nevertheless, remember that currencies can be very surprising and chart patterns are not reliable here.

Not much else can be said – we have to wait for further movements and hope they clarify the situation.

Sources:
[http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:symmetrical_triangle]

The WIG Index fell -0.19%:

The market opened quite high, but eventually lost all gains in last hour of the session. Nevertheless, as the higher high has been made, the weekly buy signal was generated.
Both oscillators are giving mixed signals.

The gains are not confirmed by volume, therefore caution is advised. Nevertheless, price is making higher highs and that is the only thing that counts.

Employment data from US is still looks bad (here or here), but stock market is growing (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/payrolls-fall-345000-jobless-rate-rises-to-94-20096583100]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/141586-unemployment-data-nothing-to-cheer-about]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-close-around-flat-line-in-volatile-trade]

The WIG Index gained +1.36%:

Few things happened over the week. The WIG Index broke 30700 and the weekly buy signal has been generated. Nevertheless, the breakout has not been accompanied by high volume. The oscillators are giving mixed signs, the volume is decreasing. It is hard to tell those are positive signals.

However, the price pays, not our opinions. Our positions should be in the money right now and we should not exit the market until the price says so.

Some thoughts on Latvia’s trouble (here).

US market has been rallying lately (here). Finance sector is quite popular among traders (here).

Interesting words from president of MasterCard’s U.S. markets (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/141370-the-trouble-with-latvia-what-it-is-and-why-it-matters]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bellwether-of-financial-sector-delivers-for-bulls]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=arDe3NYD.WWY]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=acsP1tdVTN6g]

The EURPLN has broken trendline and made higher high:

The CHFPLN chart looks alike:

Last market actions negate the symmetrical triangle formation (this post).

Both currencies generated the daily buy signals, but the weekly downtrend remains intact.

We should observe the market closely in the next week, especially if the last weekly higher highs (4.60 for EURPLN, 3.05 for CHFPLN) are broken – in that case we should consider possible trend reversal.

The polish Monetary Policy Council, cut the mandatory reserve rate to 3% from 3.5% (here).

Sources:
[http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090527-709610.html]

There was quite volatile session today. The WIG Index fell -0.45%:

We still have to wait unless the market leave the 29000-30700 area. The oscillators divergences are bearish, declining volume suggest general indecision among traders.

The US market finished more optimistic (here) and that can be a clue for the next week.

I’m going for short holidays, therefore don’t expect updates for the most part of next week.

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-slightly-higher-in-choppy-trade-materials-up]

The WIG Index lost -1.08%:

Impasse situation, area 29000-30700 holds and nothing new can be said. The lower lows on oscillators are well visible and that is not encouraging sign.

Interesting interview with the founder of the Vanguard Group – Jack Bogle (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/vanguards-bogle-time-is-on-your-side]

The WIG Index gained +1.93% today:

Today’s rally is impressive, nevertheless the general situation has not changed. The WIG Index remains between 29000 and 30700; we have to wait until it breaks out of this area.

There is comparison S&P500 Index performance against active management (here). As per S&P500 Index methodology – few interesting facts about its math (here)

Some analysis of current US market (here).

Sources:
[http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/SPIVA_Report_Year-End_2008.pdf]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/139758-the-s-p-500-five-things-you-probably-don-t-know]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/139675-strong-buying-pressure-a-quick-look]

There was quite volatile session today:

The WIG Index has made lower low on daily chart, however it’s still in error margin. Nothing new can be said; there are some negative signs: negative divergences in both oscillators and the volume is decreasing.

Still, the best approach now is to wait for further market actions and hoping our stop-loss orders won’t be triggered. Picking the bottom is quite risky now.

There is strong rally in US market today (here or here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-rally-on-consumer-confidence]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aiJ_X115pjKM]

The WIG Index fell -0.69%:

For several sessions, the WIG Index is moving in the ca.29000-30700 area.
We can note some bearish divergences on both oscillators and volume is decreasing, but nothing certain can be said right now.

The uptrend is still intact, therefore the odds favor the north direction. Nevertheless, in my opinion we should act carefully and it’s the best to wait for further market actions.

Quite interesting article why we should always protect our capital from Investopedia (here). Obvious, but sometimes surprising facts.

Sources:
[http://investopedia.com/articles/02/022002.asp]

The situation in EURPLN is still unclear:

The CHFPLN looks alike:

We might drawing the symmetrical triangle formation, however the currency market is hard and formations are unreliable there. The downtrend favors continuation of fall, but we don’t have a sell signal yet.

Sources:
[http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:symmetrical_triangle]

The WIG Index gained +1.59%:

We are still above 29000, but below last high. We have to simply wait for proper market action, as for now not much new can be said.

S&P500 closed with +3.04% gain (quite small volume), It might be a clue for tomorrow’s session.

Few interesting articles over the weekend:

• Quite long, but good review of global situation – nevertheless noteworthy (here).
• Comparison of current market with 1930 bear market (here).
• Few views on current economical situation (here).
• Another indicator-based view on US market (here).
• DJIA’s solunar model (here).

I’m going for small holidays. Therefore, there rather won’t be any updates to the end of this week.

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/137999-current-recession-is-tracking-the-1930s-bear-market]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/138067-opposing-views-of-economic-imperatives]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/138197-sectors-indicate-correction-not-reversal]
[http://carolan.org/2009/05/12/wind-shift/]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/138118-global-markets-in-review-pros-and-cons-of-a-pullback]

The EURPLN has not made new lower low:

The CHFPLN chart looks similar:

We have rather expected both currencies to generate weekly sell signals over the last couple of days, but it did not happen. Nevertheless, currencies still remain in downtrend.

The WIG Index closed the gaps from 4th May and yesterday, eventually gaining +0.39%:

Technically speaking, nothing suggest a deep correction as of today: volume is decreasing on fall, both oscillators are above their latests’ lows. However, we have made quite a gain from last low and the market seems to be unsure of future direction.

US market has lost significantly over a last couple of days (here or here):

The US market might be some clue, however we are not making any prophecies here. We have to simply wait for proper market actions and remember the current uptrend has not been negated yet.

General Motor is preparing for probable bankruptcy filing by June 1 (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-lean-higher-before-data-wave]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8ohmbRCnrLY]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFuILYrqujRs]

The WIG Index fall -0.62%:

We did not manage to close the gap from 4th May fully. There are no new signals from the market: oscillators are still doing fine, the volume is descending on drop.

The level of 29000 seems to be important support. As per our ideal setup (this post: well, not so perfect anymore as the market did not reach 31500 in last swing), the market should rebounce from this area and make higher high. However, that’s just a guessing game and there is no reliable way to forecast that.

As per weekly uptrend we should hold to our long positions until the market tells us otherwise.

Quite volatile session today. After high open the WIG Index fall -2.21%:

The market might want to close the gap from 4th May, but today’s situation is hard to interpret. Both oscillators are fine, the volume increased, however the WIG Index has been continuously losing all day.
Nevertheless, the weekly uptrend is still intact.

News portals are explaining today’s drop as renewing economy concerns after earnings data (here or here).

US housing April’s data is not so encouraging (here).

Sources:
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVX0.kLKOFjI]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-lower-on-economic-concerns-djia-roughly-down-200]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-foreclosures-reach-record-rate-in-april]

The WIG Index gain +2.37%:

The gain has been made with moderate volume (nevertheless, higher that yesterday). There is nothing suggesting weekly trend reversal.
We are still waiting for proper market action, hoping that our position won’t be closed prematurely on stop-loss orders.

Holder portal suggest, that polish mutual funds are reducing their exposure to shares:

US market recorded quite volatile session today (here).

European Union will follow US example of stress-testing by September (here or here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-end-off-lows-ahead-of-retail-sales]
[http://www.reuters.com/article/euRegulatoryNews/idUSLC2575120090512]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=avlvfVcq401Q]

The WIG Index fell -0.79%:

Descending volume does not confirm the drop. Also both oscillators are rather encouraging.
Forecasting the market is a guessing game; however, the uptrend favors long positions now. We should use this correction to extend positions, nevertheless place defense orders in case we are wrong.

Sound Advice announced new supercycle starting (here). Nevertheless, mind there are also less optimistic views (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/New-supercycle-may-starting/story.aspx?guid={FD3EE9DD-23CE-422F-9B71-0D7F91343703}]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/136863-where-is-the-economy-headed-four-bearish-views]

Over last couple of days, the EURPLN has been quite near weekly low:

Situation on CHFPLN chart is alike:

The daily sell signal has been generated on both currencies. The weekly low has not been broken yet.

European Central Bank decided to cut interest rates to 1% (here).

Sources:
[http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/worldbiz/archives/2009/05/09/2003443121]

The WIG Index stayed neutral (-0.8%):

Last few days the WIG Index has been struggling around level of 30000. The current setup visually suggest correction, nevertheless there are no technical signs for any drop and we are still above the open gap from 4th of May.

Descending volume show indecision in the market, but the weekly uptrend is intact. Therefore as per trend we should buy into it. We are not able to forecast the future direction of the market, thus always place a stop loss order and use proper money management – even in case of dramatic drop we should have our capital preserved.

US financial institutions stress tests’ results are available here. Results show, that several banks need to raise more capital to cope with current circumstances (here or here).

Bloomberg has tested few technical analysis strategies based on oscillators over S&P500 index. Results are quite interesting (here).

Sources:
[http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20090507a.htm]
[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/05/07/stress-test-results-banks_n_198797.html]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aSrwXWx4jGQw]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aM76hi1IDeOo]