Welcome everybody,

Today the Kisiel2’s Blog has been migrated to a new site:

http://kisiel2.blogspot.com

The main reason for an immigration are features of Blogger, better integration with Google and my curiosity to try an alternative blogging framework. I hope the readers will like it.
All entries were imported; however, moving images is a more tricky and WordPress will stay as an image source for all older posts for now.

Kindly thanks to WordPress.com allowing us to use their platform and great portal!

The EURPLN has broken daily low of 4.15:

The CHFPLN is below daily support of 2.75:

Both currencies have generated sell signals during this week. However, considering a number of false signals lately, those signals can also be misleading.

We should remember the primary downtrend and use those rallies are only to liquidate our long positions (if we still have any).

Note from 2009/11/14:
Lately I have received a mail with alternative interpretation and I believe it is worthwhile to visualize it here:

Of course, we can use trendlines’ breakthroughs to generate signals; however in my opinion this technique is too subjective.
Let’s take a look how many trendlines (and false breakthroughs) can be drawn:

I would rather rely on Price Action model, which generally leaves less space for interpretation (nevertheless, marking highs/lows can be tricky).
Those are my methods, but if something works good for you then use it. Eventually, every trader has to develop its own strategy.

The WIG Index fell -1.11%:

Today’s retracement can be interpreted as a preparation for taking the last high. On the other side, both oscillators are still under trendline and that is a bearish sign.
Nevertheless, before we actually go through resistance or support, our forecasts are only guesswork.

The WIG Index gained +0.88%:

Nothing new can be said about current situation as we are very close to last high, yet still below it. US market closed in red (S&P500) and that could be a negative sign.
Nevertheless, we should not act before confirmed breakout.

The Financial Graph & Art published a very interesting paper on history of FED (here).

Sources:
[http://www.financialgraphart.com/history_of_fed_free.pdf]

The WIG Index gained +0.50%:

We are quite close to last high (ca.40300), crossing it will generate primary buy signal.
Current rally is quite dynamic, but nothing can be said before we cross this level.

There is an interesting article on America’s inflation.

Note:
There is no session tomorrow, due to national holiday.

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/172262-the-unsustainable-lie-of-inflation]

The WIG Index gained +3.01%:

We have experienced nice rally today with increased volume (but still small). However, we are still below last high and we have to wait and see if the swing breaks last high.

Warren Buffett is investing in railroads (here).

StockCharts are publishing detailed technical analysis course by Chip Anderson (here). It is not finished yet, but this series is quite interesting.

There is nice blog entry how to interpret volume divergences (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/171975-how-warren-buffett-is-smarter-than-the-g20]
[http://blogs.stockcharts.com/chartwatchers/ta101]
[http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/inside-a-volume-divergence]

The EURPLN generated a daily buy signal during this week:

Similarly, daily buy signal has been also generated on CHFPLN chart:

Obviously, the October’s sell signal (this post) was a false one and we can see daily uptrend now (of course this situation can change quite fast). Nevertheless, note the primary direction is still downwards and we should not trade against primary trend.

Note for Gregorski:
I also believe that Polish Zloty is still under-valued considering Poland’s economic situation, regardless to current rally. However, I have learned that feelings are usually bad idea in this kind of business, especially in Forex market. Therefore, I rely almost exclusively on stop-loss orders and money management.
You can find exact value forecasts here or here.
By the way – if anyone would know the future exchange rates for currency, he/she could use some the more speculative instruments and be very rich quickly.

The WIG Index fell -0.87%:

The general overview is still the same: daily and primary uptrend, bearish negative divergences and decreasing volume. Therefore, we have to wait for next market action.

Gold hits record high of 1100USD/oz (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-reaches-new-record-above-1100-2009-11-06]

The WIG Index gained +1.87%:

We have experienced quite a rally today.
It was obviously important for day traders, however it does not change the general situation and we simply have to wait for proper market actions.

The Association of Individual Investors in Poland published an interesting study of individualtraders (here, Polish only).

Sources:
[http://www.sii.org.pl/analizy/badania,i,rankingi,sii/ogolnopolskie,badanie,inwestorow,-,obi,2008.html (Polish only)]

The WIG Index gained +2.03%:

The market rallied. Volume was small and oscillators are quite bearish.
However, the general situation has not changed and nothing new can be said.

The WIG Index fell -2.35%:

Today’s volume was quite low. We shall also note the negative divergence (lower low) on RSI chart, thus both oscillators are bearish now. Also, some publishers are quite bearish now  (here).
Nevertheless, technically we are still in uptrend and important levels are still holding. We shall watch the market carefully now and act only on confirmed signals.

Sources:
[http://kuczynski.blogbank.pl/2009/10/28/coraz-wiecej-sygnalow-ostrzegawczych (via Google Language Tools)]

The WIG Index fell -0.36%:

The volume today was quite low and the close is quite neutral in relation to Friday. However, the CCI oscillator is clearly showing us negative divergence and that is not a good sign.

Thus, I would suggest to trade carefully until market re-confirms the North direction.

The EURPLN rallied this week, but the daily buy signal has not been not generated yet:

The CHFPLN chart is alike:

Both currencies showed us some volatility in past period.
Nevertheless, the primary trend is still down. As per technical approach, unless primary downtrend breaks, those rallies should be used to liquidate our long positions.

The WIG Index fell -0.87%:

The general outlook is quite confusing. The daily and primary uptrend are still intact, nevertheless oscillators are not confirming last high. The today’s volume was low and there are not many clues elsewhere.
In such setup it is the best to refrain from any transactions, until situation clarifies itself.

US stock markets did not look encouraging today (here).
However, S&P500 is still above the last low (ca.1020 from 2nd October) and primary uptrend is still intact.

An interesting paper on oil available resources (here).

Good analysis of moving average crossovers (here).

Sources:
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKuVVFkJXvso]
[http://marketsci.wordpress.com/2008/09/21/moving-average-crossovers-debunked]
[http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=squeezing-more-oil-edit-this]

The WIG Index gained +1.13%:

We have had quite volatile session today. The WIG Index has been hovering near the level of ca.38000 for the first half of the session and then rapidly rallied to ca.38600-38800.
Nevertheless, the general situation has not changed and we are still in daily and primary uptrend.

US market current technical analysis (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/169708-recent-market-weakness-the-technical-damage]

The WIG Index fell -2.09%:

Oscillators are on the edge of showing negative divergence and today’s fall has been accompanied by high volume, which is not a good sign.
However, we shall not act on feelings, but on market actions and primary trend is still intact.

Bearish US housing news (here).

Sources:
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aqNlTvgoZ6iA]

The WIG Index fell -1.84%:

The market continued its fall, however the daily uptrend has not been broken yet.
Technically speaking, we shall treat current swing only as a correction now.

Interesting article about China’s future role in world economy (here).

Three interesting lectures from George Soros via SeekingAlpha (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/168664-u-s-empire-in-decline-makes-way-for-china]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/168788-george-soros-on-the-global-economy-china-and-regulation]

Unfortunately, I was not able to put a chart today.

We closed the gap from Friday; today’s low might be a support for tomorrow, however it’s just guessing game.
Both, weekly- and daily-, uptrends are intact and we shall stick to our long positions as for now.

The EURPLN has generated daily sell signal during this week:

The CHFPLN also has made lower low (and daily sell signal has triggered):

Currencies are often confusing and we shall not expect anything in Forex market.
The primary trend is still down; nevertheless hoped for further PLN weakness, so we could sell our currency positions higher.

The WIG Index gained +1.49%:

Obviously, the buy signal has been finally generated accompanied with increased volume. Therefore, primary uptrend has been reconfirmed. The RSI confirms the rally (oscillator’s higher high), the CCI still stays neutral.

AppFund’s interpretation of current setup (here).

Few interesting points on US housing prices (here).

Sources:
[http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/existing-home-sales-fall-in-september-09]
[http://appfunds.blogspot.com/2009/10/korba-sie-zaciea.html (via Google Language Tools)]

The WIG Index closed quite neutrally +0.06%:

Again, the volume was quite low, neither the high is not confirmed by oscillators. In my (subjective) opinion that marks current breakout as unreliable.
However, actual uptrend is still intact and we shall hold long positions untill they are negated.

The WIG Index gained +0.71%:

Despite today’s gain, we are still in error margin. Also, I’m still quite reluctant of calling a new buy signal as breaking the important resistance should be accompanied by volume’s hike. The volume is quite low and also oscillators do not confirm new high.

Trystero has published quite good summary of incoming Polish Energy Group IPO (here).
There is another interesting paper. This offering looks interesting, however note there is no reliable way of controlling the risk.

Sources:
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering]
[http://blogi.ifin24.pl/trystero/2009/10/19/zanim-kupisz-akcje-pge/ (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://www.expander.pl/warto-wiedziec/wiadomosci/raporty-i-analizy-szczegoly,details,164 (via Google Language Tools)]

The WIG Index gained +0.91%:

The volume was quite low and market barely crossed the 39300; we also don’t have confirmation on oscillators.
Thus, in my opinion, we need more solid confirmation of this high, before we can signal buy.

Quite interesting findings on finance sector situation (here).

The EURPLN and CHFPLN generated daily sell signals today, nevertheless they still require confirmation:

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/167419-rally-or-no-rally-regional-banks-lag]

The WIG Index gained +1.40%:

Today’s volume was rather low; the oscillators are still giving mixed signals.
The price is near the important level of ca.39300.

S&P500 has made higher high, thus the odds are the rally will be continued.

The EURPLN continues its rally:

The CHFPLN chart looks alike:

Note, the primary downtrend is still intact. As per theory we shall use those rallies to liquidate our Euro positions.

The WIG Index lost -0.40%:

Oscillators are still giving mixed signals; volume is decreasing. Primary and daily trends are up; nevertheless, not much else can be said about current situation.
We have to simply wait for breaking the level of ca.39300 before next buy confirmation.

Oil is rallying this week (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-tap-fresh-one-year-high-atop-78-2009-10-16]

The WIG Index lost -0.89%:

The open was quite high, however the session finished with a loss. Thus, we should wait for confirmed breakout of 39300, before we signal buy.
Oscillators’ trends are quite confusing now.

Interesting article on hedge fund positions with embedded Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s report (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/166251-what-hedge-funds-are-buying-and-selling-now]

Unfortunately, I was not able to publish today’s chart.

Session was quite volatile and market gained +2.46%. Let’s see if market generates buy signal tomorrow.

The WIG Index fell -0.58%:

General situation is unclear and not much can be said right now.
As per uptrend we should have long positions now.

The WIG Index gain +0.64%:

The daily and weekly uptrend is still intact; however, situation is quite unclear. Oscillators are quite neutral and seem to confirm current stagnation.
The double bottom formation (this post) has not been negated; however, I don’t think we shall consider it further.
As per uptrend we should be in long positions now, also S&P500 seem to prefer the North direction and holds above 1000 points for a while. Nevertheless, always remember about money management and proper position sizing.

Central banks are moving out from USD (here).

Gold has reached record-high (here):

President Barack Obama has been awarded Nobel Peace Prize (here). Media comments this decision as quite controversal (here or here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/speculation-in-gold-futures-hits-record-high-2009-10-12]
[http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/peace/laureates/2009/press.html]
[http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,564303,00.html]
[http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704107204574469203986653982.html]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a4x9dIJsPn4U]
[http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:double_bottom_revers]

The previous weeks were quite interesting. Both currencies have generated daily buy signal.

The EURPLN has broken outside area 4.00-4.20:

The CHFPLN is near the important level of 2.80:

Obviously, we cannot say the primary downtrend has been broken. Nevertheless, there is place for quite strong swing; we might want to note the Fibonacci levels, but it’s only guessing game.

Note:
Charts are from Monday, 12th October, due to timing issues.

The EURPLN is still in the area 4.00-4.20:

The CHFPLN has broken last high of 2.76, but it’s still below the important level of 2.80:

I would not yet say the downtrend reversed, but the CHFPLN needs to be continuously observed now.

I’m going for holidays, there probably will be no updates for about two next weeks.

(picture shamelessly stolen from First Choice)

The WIG Index fell -0.36%:

The volume was quite low, but both oscillators seem to confirm current rally.

The current swing can be classified as confirmation of the support of 38000; however, it is only guessing game and we shall not build our strategy on that kind of forecasts.

G20 leaders are discussing security of the banking sector (here)

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/g20-leaders-target-bank-reforms-see-turnaround-2009-09-25]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G-20_major_economies]

The WIG Index fell -0.41%:

The market lost some points, but still above the level of 38000. Also, the yesterday’s gap has been closed. Oscillators are confirming the rally.
There is not much to say – we should be using our strategies to enter trades (always with stop-loss orders).

Quite interesting article about volume’s interpretation (here).

Prime Minister Donald Tusk criticized Fitch Ratings agency’s report, indicating the Poland’s state of public finances has worsened (here or here). Bossa.pl published an interesting article on objectivity in rating agencies (here).

Note:
Lately I have received few questions about polish mortgages.

The most common question is if to buy now. Generally speaking, I believe the answer is yes. Unfortunately, this is not so simple, but I will try to show my point of view.
Firstly, the Polish real estate market was not hit hard by crisis; it’s my subjective opinion, but compare -10~15% loss of value in Poland (here) vs. average -20~40% loss of real estate’s value in United States (here or here).
There is also government’s mortgage subsidization program ongoing (polish: “Rodzina na swoim”, here), which helps preventing further price drop. That gives us good economic base.
There are three most important things in every real estate’s investment: localization, localization and localization.
For investment purposes we shall consider developed cities (like Warsaw, Cracow, Wroclaw, Poznan, etc.) with already developed infrastructure, liquid real estate market and many potential tenants.
The real estate has also its maintenance costs – manager’s fees, reparations fund, rent-tax, land-tax, electricity and other utilities, etc. Even, when you pass most of those costs to inhabitants, there will be some amounts to be payed by you.
Also, don’t expect the property to be rented the full year – people tend to change places ca.2 years. Moreover, you should visit your property from time to time to check if it is not being damaged by tenants.
Another issue might be available credit options. Unfortunately, not many of us have enough resources to pay for a property in full. Good summary of available credit options can be found here.
Nowadays, the interest rates are quite high (4-6% + LIBOR), I believe they shall go lower soon. However I don’t think we will have good offers (like 1% + LIBOR) anytime soon.
Buying real estate is quite complex process and it requires considerable amount of time later. You shall not rush into it and it has to be well thought-out decision.
At first, check if you have enough resources and spare time. Make realistic assumptions – the property prices and average rents can be found in few portals (i.e.: szybko.pl, www.nieruchomosci.pl, www.emieszkania.com.pl or local agent www.nieruchomoscidolnoslaskie.pl) and try to forecast expected cashflow and calculate return of interest.
Being a rentier is not an easy, however the real estates offer a lifelong and stable income.

Sources:
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=afhO5.tZlbY8]
[http://blogi.bossa.pl/2009/09/23/agencje-„obiektywizmu-czy-agencje-„sprzecznych-interesow (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://www.parkiet.com/artykul/7,851975_Tusk__Fitch_nieadekwatny.html (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://investmenttools.com/median_and_average_sales_prices_of_houses_sold_in_the_us.htm#median]
[http://www.egospodarka.pl/44808,Rynek-nieruchomosci-w-Polsce-IX-2009,1,39,1.html (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/159037-lehman-s-130-billion-loss-went-out-with-the-market]
[http://www.rodzinanaswoim.pl (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://www.najlepszykredyt.info/pozyczkihipoteczne]
[http://www.swing-trade-stocks.com/stock-chart-volume.html]

The WIG Index gain +0.77%:

As per morning’s note (this post) the buy signal has been generated. We should also note oscilators’ positive divergences and quite high volume.

The target from potential double bottom formation is ca.40700. This formation is quite reliable – only 3% failure rate after breakout (Encyclopedia of
Chart Patterns, T.N.Bulkowski).

Sources:
[http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:double_bottom_revers]

The WIG Index gain +4.19%:

The technical outlook changed dramatically – oscillators have made higher high and we can see positive divergence now. Todays rally was accompanied with huge volume with is good sign as well.

Nevertheless, the last high (ca.38000) has not been broken yet (price is still in error margin) and there was no buy signal generated today. Therefore, our descending triangle formation has not been negated yet.

However, tomorrow’s high open would generate buy signal and negate bearish formation. We might also consider double bottom formation then (with target ca.40700, hourly chart):

However, I believe we should place our buy orders only when current high is taken.

More troubles for banks ahead (here).

Note from 2009/09/23:
It seems today’s open was quite high (it’s ca.38700 now). Therefore, the descending triangle formation has been negated and buy signal has been generated.

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/162634-more-trouble-brewing-for-banking-sector]
[http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:descending_triangle]
[http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:double_bottom_revers]

The WIG Index fell -0.51%:

Again, not much can be told about current setup.

The chart looks bearish (subjective opinion), but the market hasn’t decided direction yet and we have to wait.

Some thoughts about few indicators (i.a.: +20%, net flow) (here).

US companies seek for potential mergers (here)

Poland might start increasing interest rates (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/merger-stirrings-bode-well-for-stocks-sp-says-2009-09-21]
[ http://seekingalpha.com/article/161760-poland-higher-interest-rates-coming]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/162316-busting-yet-another-market-indicator-myth]

The breakout was retraced quite fast and both currencies seem to be back to their old areas.

The EURPLN went back below the resistance of ca.4.20 and is still above psychological barrier of 4.00:

The CHFPLN did not break resistance of 2.80:

In my (subjective) opinion the breakouts should be qualified as fake ones and we shall still wait for confirmation.

I am unable to post new chart today.

However, not much have changed and we are still in the area of 38000 – 35700. We have to simply wait for market action, before we decide what to do next.

The Wig Index gain +0.79%

The overall picture is quite bearish, but we still did not generate sell signal. We have simply to wait and react accordingly.

The WIG Index gain +1.79%:

Not much new can be said now. We might recognize descending triangle formation, which is quite bearish pattern (with target level ca.32100). However, we are still balancing on the support line (ca.35700) and the sell signal has not been generated yet.

On the other side, the US market shows very positive signs as S&P500 has made higher high.

Sources:
[http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:descending_triangle]

The WIG Index gain +0.30%:

The sell signal was not generated today and we have to wait for proper market action – everything else is just guessing game.

Ben Bernanke declares recession is very likely over, however the economy’s recover will be very slow (here). Also, his published crisis’ remarks are worth-reading (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bernanke-declares-the-recession-over-2009-09-15]
[http://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20090821a.htm]

The WIG Index lost -2.09%:

The WIG Index is on the edge on another sell signal. The oscillators are showing negative divergence, but we have to wait for support (ca.35700) breakout.
There is no reason for being into stocks, when market shows weakness.

Nevertheless, it’s quite subjective, but I won’t signal primary trend reversal unless we break the level of 29200.

We should also note the breakout on EURPLN chart:

And also on CHFPLN chart:

We might be exiting the consolidation now, however we shall wait for confirmation.

Situation has not changed since last post.
EURPLN is still in the area 4.00 – 4.20:

The CHFPLN chart looks alike:

Thus, we shall still wait for market action.

Unfortunately, I was not able to put a new chart today.

Nevertheless, situation is still unclear – it such cases I prefer to be out of the market. We should wait for confirmed breakout of the level of 38000 (yesterday’s high) or 35700 (last week’s low).

The WIG Index fell -1.37%:

From technical point of view we have daily buy signal (crossing the level of 37700). Also, the S&P500 has made higher high. Form other side, the oscillators are showing negative divergence.

Personally, I’m not sure what to do and I don’t think the situation is clear enough, but we should put emotions aside.

Welcome in 300th entry in this blog.
The WIG Index gain +0.73%:

Current setup can be interpreted in many ways – we might as well be confirming the resistance (ca.37800) before continuation of fall, or continuing the long-term rally.
In such situation it is generally better to stay out of market and wait.

Let’s take a look at global view of the Polish market:

Since last global review (this post), we have gained quite a number of points. As can be noted, we are near the important level of 50% retracement (ca.39500). Technically speaking – the primary uptrend has not been negated yet.
However, we have gained almost +100% in little more than half a year, without any major correction and that can worry us.

Economic outlook seems to be much better than half a year ago. There are positive news from global economy. Bailouts are quite controversial and their long-term effects are yet to be known, but governments restored at least some liquidity in the market.

As for Poland – our country proved to be quite resistant to world crisis. In my opinion there were several reasons: strong internal market (ca.70% of Poland’s GDP), lack of more complex (and leveraged) financial instruments, conservative mortgage policy, general weakness of PLN, cheap and qualified labor, immigrants’ money transfers, etc. Poland was one of the few countries who did not formally reported recession and that is very good sign for stock market.

And for the end – Polish History in 10 minutes clip.

Sources:
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Quld5950v6w]
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product]

The WIG Index fell -0.19%:

The daily trend is still broken and there is no technical reason to be long now.

The USDEUR falls to lowest levels in 2009 (here).

Note:
It seems the Contact Form (option in the right menu) is becoming quite popular and I have got few questions on my mail to answer. I will keep answering them when possible.

First of all – I don’t try to forecast the market. I don’t think it’s possible to do it right repetitively for longer. Instead – let’s just follow the trend and use our money management rules. The maximum capital we risk in one transaction is 1-2% by book. And don’t be disappointed by losing in 2 of 3 transactions – it’s pretty OK (at least for me), just focus on squeezing those profitable ones, which is hard enough.

Second question – PLN vs. EUR, CHF or JPN. Unfortunately, the PLN is quite volatile currency. Current trend favours South direction and not much else can be said.

Sources:
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGI400UnO83c]

The WIG Index gain +3.15%:

Today’s session was quite volatile, but the Index gained some points. However, the daily trend is still broken and the situation is not clear.

There is not much to say – current setup is risky and we have to wait for market action.

Gold reaches 1000 USD (here).

China market is still in downtrend (here or Shanghai Composite).

Sources:
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAgAWSs_xezk]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-data-storm-may-confirm-recovery-2009-09-07]

Last Tuesday we have noticed quite aggressive weakness of Polish Zloty; however, both currencies have returned to the level before this hike now.

The EURPLN is still above psychological barrier of 4.00:

The CHFPLN is near 2.70 now:

We are still waiting for market action; however, as per primary downtrend we shall expect fall continuation.

Note:
I got few questions how to fast and cheaply convert EUR or GBP to PLN from abroad.

The banks in Poland have spreads ca.6%.The currency exchange bureaus are usually cheaper, but any market timing is quite hard there.
This is one-way transaction, you convert to PLN and create savings account the same or next day. Generally speaking, don’t even try to speculate with 3% commision – any reasonable strategy is killed with so high fees.
I personally use the eMax EUR account from mBank; spreads are a little bit smaler and there is no fee for receiving international transfer. The most important – conversion is done immediately when online access is used. The account is free of charge and you can have no fees on transfers when you register destination account before (o.5PLN with random transfer).
If you don’t mind please use this link for registering with mBank – there is some partner system involved and any donation is welcomed.

The WIG Index gained +0.51%:

Both oscillators have made lower low and confirmed the fall. The volume was quite low, which can be interpreted as market’s hesitance.
The primary uptrend is still intact, but it is not possible to tell if we rebounce now or fell again. We don’t want to be in the market now – we might lose the up-move and few great trades, but protection of the capital always come first.

Unfortunately, I could not publish new chart this Thursday.

Nevertheless, not much has changed. The daily trend has been broken and we should wait until it reverses (it depends on reader’s strategy of course).

The WIG Index fell -4.25%:

Unfortunately, the first scenario (yesterday’s post) proved to be right and the fell was continued. The RSI oscillator has made lower low and therefore confirmed the fell. The volume was quite high over last two sessions.

The weekly uptrend is still intact, but we might want to wait until daily trend recovers and only observe the market now.

The WIG Index fell -1.53%:

The daily sell signal has been generated and that should be warning sign for us. The oscillators do not confirm the fall yet, but considering US market (S&P500 fell -2.21%), we can expect downward move continuation. Volume is quite hard to interpret lately.

We might also interpret current setup quite differently – the market will test the level of 36600 (previous higher high) and it will provide strong support. In my opinion such scenario is quite probable; however, this is quite emotional approach and we better stay out of trades until the daily trend will reverse back to uptrend.

We need to remember, out biggest concern should always be protecting the current gains, not to outsmart the market.

The economists say the recession in US is over (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/recession-is-over-economists-say-2009-09-01]

The WG Index fell -0.73%:

The market almost generated daily sell signal. Neither oscillators nor volume suggest further fall, but most of European markets finished on red. In my opinion we shall be careful now, but until daily trend is broken we want to enter long positions.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index fell -6.74% (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-futures-lower-as-china-sinks-again-2009-08-31-9060]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SHCOMP%3AIND]

Both currencies are near their lowest levels from several months.
The EURPLN is still above the psychological support of 4.00:

The CHFPLN chart is alike:

As per downtrend, we shall rather expect breaking those supports and continuation of fall.
However, the Forex market is never straightforward and we should wait for proper market actions.

The WIG Index gained +1.04%:

Not much can be said.  The uptrend is intact and nothing suggest reversal.

Poland’s GDP grew by 1.4% by year-to-year. Nominal GDP amounted to 326.638,6 billion PLN (here).

Sources:
[http://polishmarket.com.pl/document/:20946,Polands+GDP+grew+by+11+in+Q2+2009.html]

The WIG Index fell -0.99%:

The Monday’s gap has been closed, but it didn’t change general situation. Last daily low is ca.34800 and the market is still well above that level. The volume has been slightly increased, but oscillators don’t suggest any trend reversal as of now.

We have simply to wait and observe the market. As per uptrend we shall be still in long positions (but always with the money management rules in mind).

Interesting daily term from investopedia – (Permanent Portfolio). More information here.

Sources:
[http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/permanent-portfolio.asp]
[http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2008/March/permanent-portfolio-fund.html]

The WIG Index fell -2.47%:

We are still above the Monday’s gap. The general situation looks bullish, both oscillators seem to confirm the north direction and the uptrend is intact.
Nevertheless, be careful when daily trend is broken – catching failing knives can be quite painful.

It seems Ben Bernanke will be re-nominated as FED chairman (here or here).

International Monetary Fund assessed Poland’s economy (here).

Sources:
[http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5imIFLnRV6G6bHHtmLbA8OA4AF03gD9AAEDQO0]
[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-sirota/how-to-talk-about-the-ren_b_269881.html]
[http://polishmarket.com.pl/document/:20921,IMF+completes+assessment+of+Polands+situation.html]

Unfortunately, I did not have any chart tool available today.

The WIG Index has made higher high and new buy signal has been generated. We are above the Monday’s gap.
In such setups we should not be guessing when the market will correct itself, but just try to enter long positions.

The WIG Index gained +2.19%:

Buy signal has been generated as new high has been made. Oscillators seem to confirm new high now, volume is still hard to interpret.
Our positions should be already in money. Make sure you move your defence orders.

The level of 38800 could provide some resistance, but it is just guessing.

Oil is rallying again (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-natural-gas-continue-on-different-paths-2009-08-24]

During this week there were no significant changes in general technical setup of both currencies.
EURPLN is still in the area 4.20-4.00:

The CHFPLN is still in the area 2.65-2.80, chart does not differ too much:

As per downtrend, we should rather expect the support breakouts and fall continuation. Nevertheless, there is no reliable way to forecast currencies and we have to simply wait for market action.

The EURPLN (here) and CHFPLN (here) analyses from ForexPros portal.

Sources:
[http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-pln-technical?period=86400]
[http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/chf-pln-technical?period=86400]

The WIG Index gained +3.51%:

Today’s rally has broken the level of 36700 and generated buy signal, confirming weekly uptrend is intact. Also, the oscillators have reversed theirs downtrend.

Common explanation for today’s gain is that JP Morgan advised investors to buy central European equities (here).
Investors, who were not shaken out from positions, made quite a profit.

Sources:
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a0z.p6HSjan0]

The WIG Index gained +2.89%:

Today was quite volatile session – few days ago the market was at the edge of fall, today we are almost facing new high.

Nevertheless, the general situation still hasn’t changed. We are still in the area between 34600 and 36700 – breaking one of those levels would generate signal.

The WIG Index gained +1.03%:

Not much can be said about current setup. The oscillators are suggesting the fall, the volume is quite hard to interpret.
We are on the edge of daily sell signal, but the support of 34600 still holds.

We should simply ignore our emotions and wait for market decision. Polish market seems to be quite strong in comparison to bigger and more developed markets (i.e.: S&P500, DAX or SHANGHAI).

Interesting analysis of some other assets (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/156950-asset-class-review-crude-gold-and-the-dollar]

I was unable to post new chart; nevertheless not much has happened, aside for quite small volume.
We still have to wait for proper market action.

The WIG Index fell -2.42%:

The oscillators are showing negative divergences and also the S&P500 has broken its support (ca.990).
The current setup looks quite bearish, but the price is still above daily support (ca.34600) and we cannot generate daily sell signal.

Nevertheless, we should be careful tomorrow – if we have any long positions make sure the defence orders are in place.  We are not able to say how deep this correction will be, but until our shares are in uptrend we shouldn’t drop them.

The China market has fallen quite rapidly lately (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/156308-global-markets-in-review-has-pullback-begun-with-china]

Both currencies are in downtrend, but not much has happened in the currencies since last post.
The EURPLN is still above psychological 4 PLN per 1 EUR:

The CHFPLN chart is alike:

Good news for polish mortgage owners – the prices of properties seem to stabilize (here).

Sources:
[http://dom.money.pl/wiadomosci/poradniki/artykul/ceny;mieszkan;stoja;w;miejscu;wroca;kupujacy,230,0,519398.html (via Google Language Tools)]

The WIG Index fell -0.52%:

Higher high has been made, thus buy signal has been generated. Nevertheless, I believe we shall be careful and use wide stop losses together with our money management rules. Oscillators and volume are quite confusing.

Also, out target from inverse-head-and-shoulders pattern from May (this post) has been reached (90% of projected swing size).

The bossa.pl portal has published interesting series (part one, part two, part three, part four and part five) on mentioned Blackstar Funds paper (this post).

Some thoughts on US market (here).

Sources:
[http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_b]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue]
[http://blogi.bossa.pl/?p=1075 (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://blogi.bossa.pl/?p=1081 (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://blogi.bossa.pl/?p=1084 (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://blogi.bossa.pl/?p=1086 (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://blogi.bossa.pl/?p=1089 (via Google Language Tools)]

The WIG Index gained +2.20%:

Quite volatile session. Morning power failure resulted in market’s open delay (here) and the session opened around noon.
General situation is confusing – volume trend line is hard to draw and oscillators are showing negative divergences. As per uptrend we should be still in long positions, however we should be careful now.

Some thoughts about current market (here).

The Elliot Waves are forecasting correction (here).

Source:
[http://www.wprost.pl/ar/169024/Koniec-awarii-na-warszawskiej-gieldzie/ (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/155674-8-thoughts-about-current-markets]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/155686-elliot-wave-step-aside-from-long-positions]

The WIG Index has continued fall from yesterday and lost -0.18% eventually:

The WIG Index is on the edge of generating the daily sell signal, however the level of 34500 has not been broken yet. The volume and oscillators are quite confusing.

Not much can be said right now – we have to wait for market actions.

The Wall Street Journal’s survey of economists’ expectations, showed the recession is over (here).

US Treasury Notes’ yields are rising (here).

Sources:
[http://biznes.onet.pl/ekonomisci-dlawsj-recesja-zakonczona,18491,3027676,1,news-detal (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/155112-rising-treasury-yields-some-thoughts]

Unfortunately, I was not able to post new entry.

The WIG Index has made higher high, nevertheless it finished quite low with -1.49% loss.

The WIG Index gained +1.13%:

There is not much to say – the market seems to be pretty strong, but we shall not expect anything. As per uptrend, we are playing only long positions.

Hedge funds have still not recovered despite quite big swings lately (here).

US traders are betting on increased volatility (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/many-hedge-managers-still-under-water-data-show-2009-08-10]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=anWx7LRgrFtc]

The EURPLN has given clear sell signal:

We should also note the next psychological barrier for EURPLN around 4 PLN per EUR.

The CHFPLN chart looks alike:

Therefore, both currencies are technically in downtrend. Target prices are as per Fibo levels, however there is no reliable way to forecast in Forex market.

The polish government announced, that the membership of Poland in the euro zone in 2012 is not possible (here). Next date has not been set yet.

Sources:
[http://www.egospodarka.pl/43348,Tydzien-32-2009-03-09-08-2009,1,24,1.html#Pkom (via Google Language Tools)]

The WIG Index gained +1.27%:

The gain has been accompanied by quite small volume, nevertheless the uptrend is still strong.
As per technical point of view, it might be a good moment to enter trades.

The WIG Index gained +0.87%:

The market fell few percent over last few session, but the uptrend is still strong.
We are never able to say where market is going next; therefore we should not think too much, but try to enter the market.

The WIG Index fell -1.94% today:

Monday’s higher high generated buy signal. Current situation is promising; the volume generally is increasing with gains and the oscillators are confirming the higher highs.
Not much else can be told – use your own strategies to gain some exposure to the stock market.

Some thoughts about current global setup (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/152874-is-this-a-secondary-or-primary-bull-market]

The WIG Index rallied for +4%:

The weekly buy signal has been generated. The size of this swing is quite large, but we shall not think of it – market makes higher high and that is a reason to buy.

All orders are to be cancelled on July’s last session in this week (here). Thus, all orders will have to be entered again the following Monday (or scheduled during the weekend).

I am going for a short trip, thus there won’t be any updates for the next few days.

(picture shamelessly stolen from here)

Sources:
[http://www.gpw.pl/zrodla/ogieldzie/regulacje/uch_zarz/09/310_2009.doc (via Google Language Tools)]

The WIG Index gained +0.56%:

The market is in correction. As per daily and weekly trend we shall treat this as a opportunity to enter positions  (but always place proper defence order).

Google will have real competitor as Microsoft and Yahoo are about to sign a partnership deal (here).

US housing is looking better (here).

Housing bubble in China (here).

Very valuable and interesting paper on trend following strategies (here). Must-a-read.

Sources:
[http://www.trendfollowing.com/whitepaper/Does_trendfollowing_work_on_stocks.pdf]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/152103-who-will-pay-for-china-s-housing-bubble]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/152000-microsoft-yahoo-deal-struck-will-be-announced-soon]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/152107-u-s-housing-are-better-days-ahead]

The WIG Index lost -1.24%:

Nothing new an be said – we are still in strong weekly and daily uptrends. We should be playing long now, but mind money management (as always).

Some analysis of US markets (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/151713-tuesday-outlook-bulls-remain-in-control]

The WIG Index finished quite neutrally +0.16%:

We have made new high and therefore new buy signal has been generated.
Nothing new can be said – we shall simply use our strategies to enter trades.

As per currencies – I think we can say the CHFPLN has generated sell signal today and we are waiting for confirmation from EURPLN.

Some thoughts about high-frequency trading (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/151430-high-frequency-trading-we-fear-what-we-do-not-understand]

The EURPLN is the lowest since roughly half a year:

The CHFPLN chart is alike:

Both currencies are in interesting setup. I would say the price is still in error margin, but the sell signal is very close (especially on CHFPLN chart).

The WIG Index gained +1.39%:

The WIG Index is continuing its rally from 13th July, showing exceptional market strength. Both the volume and oscillators seem to confirm the gains. The technical situation is promising at least.

If you were entering near 32000 points (daily buy signal) your positions should be in the money already and it might be a good idea to protect them after so quick gain.

Timothy Geithner urged lawmakers to review the bank regulatory reform program, so this legislation can be approved by year-end (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/geithner-congress-must-pass-bank-reform-2009-07-24]
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timothy_Geithner]

The WIG registered quite a rally in the last couple of sessions:

The daily buy signal has been generated 15th July, around 30000. This Monday also weekly buy signal has been generated. Thus, we shall consider opening new transactions.
Always use stop-loss orders and proper money management – if we are wrong we shouldn’t lose much of our capital.

Quite interesting story about stolen code from Goldman Sachs (here). I raises some concerns among bloggers (here).

Some thoughts about Ben Bernanke’s strategy (here).

Additional note:
The EURPLN and CHFPLN currencies are in interesting setup now. We might have strong sell signal quite soon (the price is still in error margin).

Sources:
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrlQSMCx-aE]
[http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/is-goldman-stealing-100-million-per-trading-day/]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/150440-bernanke-s-conundrum]

The EURPLN is close to the important level of 4.30:

The CHFPLN is close to the important level of 2.80:

(charts were generated Friday, thus today’s setup might be slightly different)

The currencies are in very interesting situation. After few months of consolidation we have a chance to see important market actions (the possible breakout of mentioned above levels), thus watch them closely.

The WIG Index lost -1.10%:

The polish market is on edge of generating daily sell signal. I don’t think we should be entering any positions now. The daily trend has been broken and both oscillators are confirming that.

Few good videos for weekend (here).

Some guessing game about polish market (here).

Bob Farrell’s 10 Rules for Investing (here).

As I’m going for holidays, there probably will be no updates for about two next weeks.

(picture shamelessly stolen from Iho Ohi blog)

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/148031-the-week-s-top-videos-pete-peterson-boone-pickens-jeff-saut-and-more]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a4lgRahu0ddY]
[http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/08/bob-farrells-10.html]

The WIG Index gained +0.66%:

We had high volume, therefore we have changed the way we draw trendline on volume.

The area of 29600 holds. Nevertheless, it is still not a reason to enter long positions as the daily trend has been broken.

The WIG Index fell -0.32% today:

The market is close to daily sell signal, but we don’t have confirmation yet. The oscillators negative divergences are confirming the downtrend.

It situation like those it is the best to be in the money, but it does not mean we should panic out of our positions. Our defence orders will tell us when to get out.

The WIG Index finished with 0.01% gain:

The today’s volume was quite high (but still in decline), but the finish was quite neutral. We should also note potential head-and-shoulders pattern with target price ca.26000.
Not much else can be said, we have to wait for proper market actions.

Some thoughts about recession in global view (here).

Quite interesting article about current situation (here)

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/147140-this-recession-isn-t-over-now-for-the-hard-part]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/147320-how-to-play-a-market-pullback]

Quite significant session as we touched the last daily lower low. The entry is delayed; nevertheless, the daily trend is still broken and we should not do anything, but increase our defence orders if necessary.

I’m going for holidays next week, thus there won’t be any updates till last week of July.

Both currencies are quite interesting. The EURPLN has fallen quite dynamically:

The CHFPLN chart is alike:

Daily sell signal has been generated. The daily trend has been clearly broken and the weekly downtrend is still intact.
That gives us quite strong bearish setup and we shall expect continuation of fall as per momentum basics.

However, keep in mind the currencies can be very surprising and after last period of stagnation I would personally wait (subjective opinion) for confirmed breakout of last important low (4.20 for EURPLN, 2.78 for CHFPLN) before entering any trades.

The WIG Index fell -0.49%:

The general situation is not encouraging. Volume is still declining and the oscillators are confirming lower highs.
The market is difficult now and we should not expect average investor to make profits. Thus, we wait.

It was not possible for me to update this entry. However, not much have changed – the daily trend remains broken, the weekly is still intact.
We should not open any new positions now, therefore the worst could happen is the closure of old positions on defence orders.

The WIG Index gained +0.89%:

Today’s session did not generate any signals. We still have broken daily trend, small volume and negative divergences on both oscillators.
Thus, we only wait and observe.

The EURPLN registered quite significant drop today:

The same on CHFPLN chart:

It might be the rapid continuation of primary downtrend, but we should be careful and wait for market’s confirmation.

The WIG Index lost -0.35%:

The market lost all of its gains in the last several minutes of trading. The volume was higher than yesterday, but still low. Oscillators are confirming the fall.

General situation does not encouraging and we should not think of new positions unless the daily trend recover.

Bernard Madoff has been sentenced to 150 years in prison (here). Video report here.

Some thoughts about USD in long term (here).

Sources:
[http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124604151653862301.html]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/146159-is-the-dollar-dead-in-the-long-run]
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3eU4FI4yEvI]

The WIG Index gained +0.87% with quite small volume:

Nothing new can be said about general situation.
The small volume of fall can be positive sign, but the broken daily trend and downtrend in oscillators are discouraging from entering any trades.

Opinion poll results for the US stock market (here).

Please keep in mind, that some further entries can be delayed, due to personal reasons. It is quite hard to always keep with daily publications without any organized resources and process, especially when trading is not the main source of income.

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/145922-stock-market-buy-hold-or-sell-poll-results]

The EURPLN has fallen few points in this week:

The CHFPLN registered quite fast drop on Wednesday; there are rumors about Swiss National Bank intervening (here):

Nothing really changed in our situation. Both currencies’ charts are still confusing.

Nevertheless, I’m still quite bearish on those currencies, especially on the CHFPLN. Both, Swiss National Bank and National Bank of Poland have intervened to weaken the Swiss Franc and those are a powerful allies on polish mortgage owners side. However, this is my own and very subjective opinion.

Sources:
[http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8575219]

The WIG Index gained +0.54%:

The volume was very small and it seems the market is undecided. The broken daily trend, decreasing volume and falling oscillators are not encouraging to enter any trades.

Brett Steenbarger published quite interesting article about his experiences as traders’ coach (here).

Lunch with Warren Buffett has been sold for 1.68 million USD on eBay auction (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/145317-five-mistakes-of-developing-traders]
[http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=290325279833]

The WIG Index fell -0.62%:

General outlook is still confusing: clear reversal on daily trend (with oscillators’ confirmations), but weekly uptrend is still intact.

Not much else can be said. Depending on your strategy, you might want to be out of market or trying to ride current swing. However, I’m rather careful now.

The WIG Index gain +1.30%:

Situation is quite confusing. The weekly uptrend is still intact, but the daily trend has been reversed and it’s confirmed by oscillators.

I don’t think we shall enter any new positions until the market starts to recover and daily trend is up again (but this is subjective opinion). Depending on trader’s strategy there can be few approaches to setups like those, but always mind the proper money management.

There is an interesting interview with former financial advisor (here) working in bank.

Monetary Policy Council lowered interest rates by 0.25% to 3.50% for the main reference rate (here).

Sources:
[http://wyborcza.pl/biznes/1,99154,6742264,Skad_taka_pazernosc_bankow_.html?as=1&ias=4 (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://gielda.onet.pl/0,1996076,wiadomosci.html (via Google Language Tools)]

The WIG Index fell -0.26%:

The daily sell signal was generated on Monday, but the weekly uptrend is still intact. The volume increased over last few sessions, which is not a good sign. Both oscillators have made lower low, therefore divergences confirmed the fall.

We might also want to draw Head-and-Shoulders formation on 1-hour chart with target price ca.29000 (90% of the move has been already reached):

The fell was very dynamic and unfortunately, some of our positions were surely liquidated. However, as the daily uptrend has been broken we should not attempt to enter the market immediately.

Current situation is quite dangerous and catching falling knives usually is painful.

The European Commission will take a decision on the opening of the excessive deficit procedure against the Poland (here).

Sources:
[http://biznes.onet.pl/0,1994597,wiadomosci.html (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://www.chartpatterns.com/headandshoulders.htm]
[http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fallingknife.asp]

Monday’s session was very interesting one; daily sell signal has been generated.
However, due to personal reasons, I was not able to publish a entry.

The session was quite volatile and showed us why risk management is important:

Some interesting links from weekend:

• Commodities correction (here).
• USD breakout (here).
• Defaults of US companies (here).
• Three banks closed in US (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/144287-commodities-today-the-correction-has-arrived]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/144297-u-s-dollar-breakout-on-the-horizon]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/144406-bankruptcies-of-large-u-s-corporations-soar]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/georgia-north-carolina-banks-closed-by-regulators]

The EURPLN slowly, but steadily continues its rally:

The CHFPLN chart is similar:

Both currencies are next to generating the buy signal.
I find current setup quite confusing, but the price is what counts, not our beliefs.

The Swiss National Bank intends to lower three-month CHF LIBOR rate to ca.0.25% (currently: 0.40%) (here).

Sources:
[http://www.finanse.egospodarka.pl/41800,Kurs-franka-do-euro-SNB-za-oslabieniem,1,48,1.html (via Google Language Tools)]

The WIG Index gained +1.53%:

The volume was quite high today, however we should not forget today was Triple Witching day. We did not cross the 30800 today and that is a good sign.
However, the general situation is unclear and we have to wait for market action. Of course, weekly uptrend is intact and we should still have long positions.

Holder portal has published funds buy/sell transaction ratio in May (here):

It seems the mutual funds were selling shares in May, but the polish pension funds (OFE) were buying them.

Quite interesting S&P500 analysis (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/144187-s-p-500-fundamental-and-technical-convergence]
[http://www.holder.com.pl/fm.shtml?id=7231&fm=11154&c=30348801004 (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Otwarty_fundusz_emerytalny (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/triplewitchinghour.asp]

The WIG Index fell -0.14%:

We are very close to generate daily sell signal (ca.30800), but the price is still within error margin. The volume today was surprisingly low and that might mean the market is undecided.
Nevertheless, the weekly uptrend is intact and everything else is just guessing game.

Over last couple of sessions some of our positions were probably shaken out and considering general uncertainty, we should not attempt to reenter them immediately.

The WIG Index significantly fell -2.09%:

The volume is barely higher, but it’s still decreasing. Oscillators show negative divergences as lower low were made.
The overall sentiment is rather negative, but as for now there are no technical signs of trend reversal on wider time frames.

There is an interesting tool – McClellan Oscillator (here).

Good summarizing of general situation in US; few self-explaining charts can be also found there (here).

Sources:
[http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2009/06/16/mcclellan-oscillator-the-trend-is]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/143661-looking-at-this-recession-in-a-historical-context]

The WIG Index opened quite low, but recovered most of its loss and finished -0.40%:

Nothing new can be said – there are no technical sings of trend reversal, but the volume tells us to be careful.
We have to simply wait for market actions.

FED might consider selling options to ease an imbalance in interest rate derivatives (here).

Interesting technical view on the S&P500 (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/flip-flopping-moving-averages-point-to-momentum]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avcmU5N8uBY0]

The WIG Index finished with quite a loss -1.38%:

The weekly trend is intact and therefore we should still be in long positions now.

The gains are not accompanied by high volume and that might be a warning sign.
The only thing we can control is risk; thus, if you are entering transactions now, make sure the profit/risk ratio is high enough.
However, I assume most of our capital is already invested and our positions are mostly in the money. That gives us some risk-buffer in case of trend reversal.

Interesting analysis about markets in Europe (here).

Quite interesting study about investor’s behaviour (here).

Thoughts and indicators for US economy (here). Buy signal on DJIA (here).

More on USD (here and here) and treasury bonds (here).

Lem’s blog won’t be free anymore. New site available here.

Sources:
[http://www.qaib.com/showresource.aspx?URI=advisoreditionfreelook&Type=FreeLook]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/142965-u-s-indicators-on-track-for-q4-economic-recovery]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/143023-a-socratic-dialogue-fearing-the-collapse-of-u-s-treasury-bond-prices]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/143034-will-the-u-s-dollar-crash]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abKnXn3puSjY]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/143180-preview-from-europe-markets-tread-water-on-low-volume]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/143217-long-term-market-trends-a-djia-buy-signal-indicator]

The EURPLN does not have clear situation:

The CHFPLN chart also shows a lot of indecision:

Both currencies have been moving within the same areas for several weeks.
Not much can be said until the price breaks one of those levels.

The WIG Index gained +1.40%:

The weekly buy signal has been generated. Today’s session was a nice rally, however it was not confirmed by volume.
The volume is decreasing, the oscillators are not giving any signals.

Generally speaking, current situation is unclear. Nevertheless, the price is the most important and we play without emotions and forecasting. Not much else can be said right now.

We have had quite a rally today:

The WIG Index gained impressive +1.90% and it’s at the level of previous high. Oscillators are confusing, however the volume is clearly decreasing.

The price is the most important and weekly uptrend is still intact. However, the volume does not confirm today’s rally and I believe we should be careful now.
The most of our positions was made at lower levels and generally should be in the money now. Thus, the risk of trend reversal is bearable.

California Budget Crisis explained by John Steward (here).

Update from 2009/06/11:
I forgot to mention there is no session this Thursday.

There is quite interesting article about China and their role (here).

Sources:
[http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=230057&title=youre-welcome-california-budget]
[http://longterm.bblog.pl/wpis,chiny;nie;uratuja;swiata,26125.html (via Google Language Tools)]

The WIG Index gained +1.58%:

Well, not much can be said as per today’s session either. Volume is still decreasing, the interpretation of oscillators is too subjective.
As per weekly uptrend we should be entering positions (mind stop-losses) and hoping the trend won’t reverse. Everything else is just guessing game.

The US unemployment reports can be tricky (here). Good summarizing of unemployment values can be found here.

Below are view-per-day stats from blog:

It seems technical analysis is all around us

Sources:
[http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2008/12/08/employment-report-much-worse-than-reported/]
[http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2009/06/08/jobless-rate-soars-technology-to-blame/]
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_analysis]

The WIG Index fell significantly -1.80%:

The general situation has not changed and it’s hard to tell anything new. The volume was low today and that can be encouraging sign.

We not trying to forecast the market – until the market significantly breaks the level of 29000 the uptrend is intact and potential correction can be a good place to enter few trades.

Quite optimistic article about recent moves in Baltic Dry Index (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/141794-baltic-dry-index-rise-indicates-good-economic-tidings]
[http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm]

The EURPLN shows quite unclear situation:

The CHFPLN chart is not helping either:

Both currencies become more problematic to analyze. The pattern of LL & LH is not so obvious now and it’s generally hard to say anything about current situation. Weekly downtrend has not been negated yet and odds favor the price fall.

We shall also consider trend reversal. The charts show the potential targets for upward breakout from symmetrical triangle formations. However, triangles usually form during a trend as a continuation pattern. Nevertheless, remember that currencies can be very surprising and chart patterns are not reliable here.

Not much else can be said – we have to wait for further movements and hope they clarify the situation.

Sources:
[http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:symmetrical_triangle]

The WIG Index fell -0.19%:

The market opened quite high, but eventually lost all gains in last hour of the session. Nevertheless, as the higher high has been made, the weekly buy signal was generated.
Both oscillators are giving mixed signals.

The gains are not confirmed by volume, therefore caution is advised. Nevertheless, price is making higher highs and that is the only thing that counts.

Employment data from US is still looks bad (here or here), but stock market is growing (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/payrolls-fall-345000-jobless-rate-rises-to-94-20096583100]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/141586-unemployment-data-nothing-to-cheer-about]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-close-around-flat-line-in-volatile-trade]

The WIG Index gained +1.36%:

Few things happened over the week. The WIG Index broke 30700 and the weekly buy signal has been generated. Nevertheless, the breakout has not been accompanied by high volume. The oscillators are giving mixed signs, the volume is decreasing. It is hard to tell those are positive signals.

However, the price pays, not our opinions. Our positions should be in the money right now and we should not exit the market until the price says so.

Some thoughts on Latvia’s trouble (here).

US market has been rallying lately (here). Finance sector is quite popular among traders (here).

Interesting words from president of MasterCard’s U.S. markets (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/141370-the-trouble-with-latvia-what-it-is-and-why-it-matters]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bellwether-of-financial-sector-delivers-for-bulls]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=arDe3NYD.WWY]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=acsP1tdVTN6g]

The EURPLN has broken trendline and made higher high:

The CHFPLN chart looks alike:

Last market actions negate the symmetrical triangle formation (this post).

Both currencies generated the daily buy signals, but the weekly downtrend remains intact.

We should observe the market closely in the next week, especially if the last weekly higher highs (4.60 for EURPLN, 3.05 for CHFPLN) are broken – in that case we should consider possible trend reversal.

The polish Monetary Policy Council, cut the mandatory reserve rate to 3% from 3.5% (here).

Sources:
[http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090527-709610.html]

There was quite volatile session today. The WIG Index fell -0.45%:

We still have to wait unless the market leave the 29000-30700 area. The oscillators divergences are bearish, declining volume suggest general indecision among traders.

The US market finished more optimistic (here) and that can be a clue for the next week.

I’m going for short holidays, therefore don’t expect updates for the most part of next week.

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-slightly-higher-in-choppy-trade-materials-up]

The WIG Index lost -1.08%:

Impasse situation, area 29000-30700 holds and nothing new can be said. The lower lows on oscillators are well visible and that is not encouraging sign.

Interesting interview with the founder of the Vanguard Group – Jack Bogle (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/vanguards-bogle-time-is-on-your-side]

The WIG Index gained +1.93% today:

Today’s rally is impressive, nevertheless the general situation has not changed. The WIG Index remains between 29000 and 30700; we have to wait until it breaks out of this area.

There is comparison S&P500 Index performance against active management (here). As per S&P500 Index methodology – few interesting facts about its math (here)

Some analysis of current US market (here).

Sources:
[http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/SPIVA_Report_Year-End_2008.pdf]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/139758-the-s-p-500-five-things-you-probably-don-t-know]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/139675-strong-buying-pressure-a-quick-look]

There was quite volatile session today:

The WIG Index has made lower low on daily chart, however it’s still in error margin. Nothing new can be said; there are some negative signs: negative divergences in both oscillators and the volume is decreasing.

Still, the best approach now is to wait for further market actions and hoping our stop-loss orders won’t be triggered. Picking the bottom is quite risky now.

There is strong rally in US market today (here or here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-rally-on-consumer-confidence]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aiJ_X115pjKM]

The WIG Index fell -0.69%:

For several sessions, the WIG Index is moving in the ca.29000-30700 area.
We can note some bearish divergences on both oscillators and volume is decreasing, but nothing certain can be said right now.

The uptrend is still intact, therefore the odds favor the north direction. Nevertheless, in my opinion we should act carefully and it’s the best to wait for further market actions.

Quite interesting article why we should always protect our capital from Investopedia (here). Obvious, but sometimes surprising facts.

Sources:
[http://investopedia.com/articles/02/022002.asp]

The situation in EURPLN is still unclear:

The CHFPLN looks alike:

We might drawing the symmetrical triangle formation, however the currency market is hard and formations are unreliable there. The downtrend favors continuation of fall, but we don’t have a sell signal yet.

Sources:
[http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:symmetrical_triangle]

The WIG Index gained +1.59%:

We are still above 29000, but below last high. We have to simply wait for proper market action, as for now not much new can be said.

S&P500 closed with +3.04% gain (quite small volume), It might be a clue for tomorrow’s session.

Few interesting articles over the weekend:

• Quite long, but good review of global situation – nevertheless noteworthy (here).
• Comparison of current market with 1930 bear market (here).
• Few views on current economical situation (here).
• Another indicator-based view on US market (here).
• DJIA’s solunar model (here).

I’m going for small holidays. Therefore, there rather won’t be any updates to the end of this week.

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/137999-current-recession-is-tracking-the-1930s-bear-market]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/138067-opposing-views-of-economic-imperatives]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/138197-sectors-indicate-correction-not-reversal]
[http://carolan.org/2009/05/12/wind-shift/]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/138118-global-markets-in-review-pros-and-cons-of-a-pullback]

The EURPLN has not made new lower low:

The CHFPLN chart looks similar:

We have rather expected both currencies to generate weekly sell signals over the last couple of days, but it did not happen. Nevertheless, currencies still remain in downtrend.

The WIG Index closed the gaps from 4th May and yesterday, eventually gaining +0.39%:

Technically speaking, nothing suggest a deep correction as of today: volume is decreasing on fall, both oscillators are above their latests’ lows. However, we have made quite a gain from last low and the market seems to be unsure of future direction.

US market has lost significantly over a last couple of days (here or here):

The US market might be some clue, however we are not making any prophecies here. We have to simply wait for proper market actions and remember the current uptrend has not been negated yet.

General Motor is preparing for probable bankruptcy filing by June 1 (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-lean-higher-before-data-wave]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8ohmbRCnrLY]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFuILYrqujRs]

The WIG Index fall -0.62%:

We did not manage to close the gap from 4th May fully. There are no new signals from the market: oscillators are still doing fine, the volume is descending on drop.

The level of 29000 seems to be important support. As per our ideal setup (this post: well, not so perfect anymore as the market did not reach 31500 in last swing), the market should rebounce from this area and make higher high. However, that’s just a guessing game and there is no reliable way to forecast that.

As per weekly uptrend we should hold to our long positions until the market tells us otherwise.

Quite volatile session today. After high open the WIG Index fall -2.21%:

The market might want to close the gap from 4th May, but today’s situation is hard to interpret. Both oscillators are fine, the volume increased, however the WIG Index has been continuously losing all day.
Nevertheless, the weekly uptrend is still intact.

News portals are explaining today’s drop as renewing economy concerns after earnings data (here or here).

US housing April’s data is not so encouraging (here).

Sources:
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVX0.kLKOFjI]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-lower-on-economic-concerns-djia-roughly-down-200]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-foreclosures-reach-record-rate-in-april]

The WIG Index gain +2.37%:

The gain has been made with moderate volume (nevertheless, higher that yesterday). There is nothing suggesting weekly trend reversal.
We are still waiting for proper market action, hoping that our position won’t be closed prematurely on stop-loss orders.

Holder portal suggest, that polish mutual funds are reducing their exposure to shares:

US market recorded quite volatile session today (here).

European Union will follow US example of stress-testing by September (here or here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-end-off-lows-ahead-of-retail-sales]
[http://www.reuters.com/article/euRegulatoryNews/idUSLC2575120090512]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=avlvfVcq401Q]

The WIG Index fell -0.79%:

Descending volume does not confirm the drop. Also both oscillators are rather encouraging.
Forecasting the market is a guessing game; however, the uptrend favors long positions now. We should use this correction to extend positions, nevertheless place defense orders in case we are wrong.

Sound Advice announced new supercycle starting (here). Nevertheless, mind there are also less optimistic views (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/New-supercycle-may-starting/story.aspx?guid={FD3EE9DD-23CE-422F-9B71-0D7F91343703}]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/136863-where-is-the-economy-headed-four-bearish-views]

Over last couple of days, the EURPLN has been quite near weekly low:

Situation on CHFPLN chart is alike:

The daily sell signal has been generated on both currencies. The weekly low has not been broken yet.

European Central Bank decided to cut interest rates to 1% (here).

Sources:
[http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/worldbiz/archives/2009/05/09/2003443121]

The WIG Index stayed neutral (-0.8%):

Last few days the WIG Index has been struggling around level of 30000. The current setup visually suggest correction, nevertheless there are no technical signs for any drop and we are still above the open gap from 4th of May.

Descending volume show indecision in the market, but the weekly uptrend is intact. Therefore as per trend we should buy into it. We are not able to forecast the future direction of the market, thus always place a stop loss order and use proper money management – even in case of dramatic drop we should have our capital preserved.

US financial institutions stress tests’ results are available here. Results show, that several banks need to raise more capital to cope with current circumstances (here or here).

Bloomberg has tested few technical analysis strategies based on oscillators over S&P500 index. Results are quite interesting (here).

Sources:
[http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20090507a.htm]
[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/05/07/stress-test-results-banks_n_198797.html]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aSrwXWx4jGQw]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aM76hi1IDeOo]

The WIG Index fell -0.56%:

The higher high has been made and weekly buy signal has been generated. The target from symmetrical triangle seem to be realized (usually this pattern give about 80-90% of projected swing size).
Few on-line analysts are expecting a correction now, however there are no technical signs of even short-term reversal yet; we have to simply wait for proper market actions.
The significant drop at the end of session is confusing, nevertheless the weekly trend is still intact.

China warns the Federal Reserve to pump more cash into the financial system (here).

Few words about Warren Buffett (here) from the end of 2008. Currently Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is trading much lower (here or here).

Sources:
[http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2008/10/02/warren-buffett-genius-or-thief/]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/China-central-bank-says-Fed/story.aspx?guid={2B1DC06C-6E35-4C7F-8291-8C3D3CB7283E}]

The WIG Index gained +0.37%:

General situation has not changed and not much new can be said. The overall trend is upward and we should buy into the trend. Both oscillators and high volume seem to confirm the north direction.

US bank stress tests seem to have quite good results (here or here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Tests-show-some-bank-capital/story.aspx?guid={79FA759F-F5A3-4111-8CE8-611E73B2529B}]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aMrqninDRIIw]

The WIG Index fell -0,80%:

The market rallied for two weeks and correction will be natural.
We are not able to give any reliable forecast now and we just have to wait for meaningful market actions. Nevertheless, current uptrend seems to be strong and any retracement might be good place for entering positions (always with stop-loss orders).

Let’s also take a look at global situation:

Current rally is the biggest in this bear market (almost +50% from the bottom).
Of course, the drop might continue, thus buy-and-hold strategy is not a good choice in current economy situation. Nevertheless, we should be able to earn some profits now.

Here is quite interesting article about bear markets’ rallies during Great Depression, which can be a good reference point to our situation.

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/135331-don-t-be-fooled-we-ve-been-here-before]
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression]
[http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/buyandhold.asp]

The WIG Index rallied +3.44% today:

The weekly buy signal was generated. Increased volume and breakout in CCI seem to confirm upward direction. It also seems the main trend has been reversed, however we would like to wait few more days to see if the WIG Index remains above 29000 and it’s not bear trap.

There are two patterns we might want to consider:

• The symmetrical triangle pattern (as per chart) gives us target price ca.31500.
• The inverse-head-and-shoulders pattern has been drawn on the chart, with target price ca.38000.

The preferable scenario will be rally to ca. 31500, then retracement to 29000 and rally above last high. That will be perfect scenario; nevertheless, we have to work with what we see, not what we want to see.

Some thoughts about current economic situation in general (here).

Quite interesting article on banks (part 1 and part 2).

Here are few ideas for the big question if we are still in bear market?

There is a very interesting entry in Airelon’s blog about trading in general. Make sure to watch video.

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/134546-do-you-believe-banks-are-recovering-part-1]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/134549-do-you-believe-banks-are-recovering-part-2]
[http://www.trystero.pl/archives/3028 (via Google Language Tools]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/134586-monitoring-the-economy]
[http://investorandtrader.blogspot.com/2009/05/find-your-bias-for-entrances-video.html]
[http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_b]
[http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:symmetrical_triangle]

The EURPLN is still in a weekly downtrend:

The CHFPLN looks alike:

Both currencies remain in a weekly downtrend. Latest rallies seem to be reversed already (subjective opinion), but there is no technical confirmation yet and currencies like to make surprises.

The European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates again in May (here or here).

Sources:
[http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2009/05/01/ap6366628.html]
[http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/tighter-bank-standards-put-pace-of-lending-growth-at-15year-low-1725679.html]

The WIG Index rallied +2.63%:

The pennant/symmetrical triangle formation (yesterday’s post) has been drawn on chart with target price ca.31000.

The weekly buy signal has been generated as the level of 28650 has been broken. However, we are just below the important level of 29000 and it’s risky to open positions right now. We shall wait until this level is broken and confirmed later (preferably with rebounce and increasing volume) – capital preservation is a priority and we don’t have to rush.

Not much else can be said – next few sessions might decide market’s future direction.

Tomorrow there is no session.

The WIG Index rallied +3.5%:

Today’s rally was impressive (and also covered open gap from Monday), but we are still below the important level of 29000. Descending volume and contrary signals from oscillators are saying nothing about the future direction of the market.

We might also note a pennant or symmetrical triangle pattern on 15 minute chart:

The main difference between those patterns is usually the duration (here: pattern less than 3 weeks is usually considered as pennant; the symmetrical triangle’s duration is typically about 3 months).
Nevertheless, both are continuation patterns.

Not much else can be said right now and we have to remember the market can always go both ways.

Sources:
[http://www.investopedia.com/university/charts/charts6.asp]
[http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:symmetrical_triangle]
[http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:flag_pennant_continu]

The WIG Index opened with a gap lower and eventually fell -2.45%:

The general situation has not changed and we are still in daily and weekly uptrend. The lower high on daily chart can worry, however it’s pointless to make any forecasts now. The market still looks undecided and we basically have to wait for its actions.

As per weekly uptrend we have better chances going upward. Nevertheless, making any trades now can be risky and proper stop-loss orders have to be deployed, regardless of our beliefs. As small capital traders we can enter and exit our positions very fast and we should use this advantage.

The WIG Index fell -1.11%:

The general situation is still not clear. Contrary signs from oscillators and descending volume don’t clarify the picture either. In those situation is the best to just wait for market action.
Also, note the potential (only potential as so far) inverse-head-and-shoulders pattern with neckline ca.29000 and left shoulder height ca.26700.

Interesting view on US debt allocation (here).

Some articles about US housing market (here and here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/132960-more-cold-water-for-u-s-housing-market]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/133152-mixed-housing-report]
[http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2009/04/24/foreign-holders-of-us-treasury-debt/]
[http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_b]
[http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inverseheadandshoulders.asp]

The EURPLN rallied over last couple of days (charts thanks to ChartStation):

The CHFPLN looks alike:

The currencies’ swings are surprising as usual. The daily buy signals were generated; however, the weekly downtrend remains intact and we should not bet against the higher level trend.

As for head-and-shoulders patterns (previous post) – they are still intact (negation after crossing the shoulder’s height).
The Fibo projections were altered as per charts.

Another four US banks defaulted this Friday (here). That gives 51 bank failures total since the credit crisis.

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Four-banks-shuttered-credit-crunch/story.aspx?guid={982438DE-54E6-4F2E-84FF-FA3F1556A589}]

The WIG Index gain +2.17%:

The volume has broken from its trend, but it’s still decreasing. The oscillators are giving contrary signs.

The WIG Index is in quite interesting situation, breaking the level of 29000 will generate very strong signal. Not much else can be said and we have to wait for proper market action.

The Federal Reserve on Friday evaluated the situation of the 19 largest US banks (here). However, detailed results will be published 4th May (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/US-releases-bank-stress-test/story.aspx?guid={A0F3B386-D75B-4301-96DB-5315B135CB98}]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a9q8lrHiNrg4]

The WIG Index continued its rally:

We are still below last high. Oscillators are giving contrary signals and the descending volume does not confirm the rally.
However, the price is the only thing that matters at the end and the current HL & HH pattern still looks very promising. Nevertheless, we have to wait for proper market action now.

The WIG Index gain +2.22%:

Current situation is not clear: the oscillators are giving contrary clues, volume seems to be descending. Nevertheless, there is still buy signal on daily and weekly term.

There is nice summarizing of US stock earnings. Alternatively, reported earnings can be tracked be EarningsWatch.

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/132379-most-positive-and-negative-reactions-to-earnings]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/markets/earningswatch.asp]

It was quite a session today, however the WIG Index gained +0.5% eventually:

The WIG Index continued its fall, however it’s still well within correction limits.
Not much can be said – there is no reliable way to tell how deep we can go; however the weekly trend favor the upward moves.

For interesting US market analysis, check here.

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Technical-cross-currents-greet-recovery/story.aspx?guid={198FEFE8-8AA8-40D8-81E5-A6B94E71CDB0}]

The WIG Index fell -2.52%:

The weekly and daily uptrends remain intact.
Last several weeks have shown tremendous market strength and it is reasonable to have a pullback now. However, we have to wait for proper market action.

Welcome to 200th entry!
The blog has started 14th July (this post) as continuation from Money.pl forum “Analiza WIG20″ thread (polish, occasionally updated). Totally ca.350 charts were published – mainly WIG, discontinued WIG20, EURPLN and CHFPLN.

Upon blog start, the financial crisis was well under way and the WIG Index was already in a downtrend; hopefully the market started to recover, but this is only my subjective opinion.

Current economic situation was unheard of. Economy is very global now, the fast capital changes markets very quickly and current hedge fund industry is very speculative one.
Warsaw Stock Exchange is still very young market (it finished 18 years few days ago, note in this post) and still tends to overreact on economic news; however this is something only maturity can fix. Nevertheless, Poland as a emerging market have pretty strong economy and there is large development potential. Poland is 19th country by the size of country’s gross domestic product as per 2007 statistics (here).

Poland’s finance sector is healthy and the house sector was not hurt so badly  in comparison to the more developed countries. Mortgage payments were hit pretty bad as per CHFPLN uptrend and this is still ongoing issue, but polish mortgage owners are rather paying their debts and there aren’t many defaults.
Poland has lost many professionals due to immigration, however they tend to going back now. The immigrants are also transferring a great amount of foreign money to Poland and convert it to PLN.

Of course, there are many  internal and external issues, the average polish income is pretty low in comparison to EU standard and that does not encourage Polens to invest in stock market.
However, the living standard has been continuously increasing on fast pace; therefore, I believe Poland will eventually join the most developed countries and hopefully Warsaw Stock Market will reflect that.

As for Brian Shannon’s video – unfortunately, Brian decided not to publish his video freely anymore. His blog has been shutdown (there is a link to new page, where you can order premium membership).
I would like to thank him, as viewing his videos were great way of learning.
Here is his final video from Sunday.

What we learned is not too rely on oscillators and volume too much; the Brian Shannon’s saying “only price pays” is very actual. Nevertheless, the Fibo levels and patterns can sometimes provide valuable tool for target level estimation.
Another hard learned lesson was not to rely on feelings and forecasts and always have proper money management.

Sources:
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)]

The EURPLN is continuing downtrend:

The CHFPLN  generated another weekly sell signal:

Not much else can be said right now. Both currencies are in downtrend and we shall expect constant drop in price.

We also might want to draw head-and-shoulders pattern (examples) on both charts:
EURPLN: neckline ca.4.40 , target price ca.3.90
CHFPLN: neckline: ca.2.87, target price ca.2.40 (neckline here might be sloping on a slight downward angle)

However, both Fibo levels and patterns are rather guessing game in case of currencies. We should not rely on them too much.

Sources:
[http://www.chartpatterns.com/headandshoulders.htm]

The WIG Index fell -2.65%:

The general situation hasn’t changed and there are no new signals. The daily sell signal will be after crossing the level of 25850.

Polish mutual funds are increasing their exposure to stock market (here).

Sources:
[http://www.holder.com.pl/fm.shtml?id=6968&fm=11154&c=34105625020 (via Google Language Tools)]

The WIG Index fell -0.5%:

It’s hard to interpret market right now – RSI and CCI oscillators are giving contrary signals, volume direction is very subjective. We are near the important level of 29000 and market has to decide the direction.

As per weekly signals there is still uptrend and we might use this pullback to enter some positions. However, proper money management is very important – especially at this moment we don’t want any positions without defence.

Warsaw Stock Exchange celebrates 18th birthday today (here). According to polish law that is the threshold for adulthood.
It all started in 1991 in Centrum Bankowo-Finansowe:

(Image shamelessly stolen from here)

Sources:
[http://www.gpw.pl/gpw.asp?cel=ogieldzie&ktore=014615_2 (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://www.cbf.com.pl/index.php/en/]

The WIG Index gained +0.73%:

There was no higher high (as we used to), however the general situation did not change. We are still just below important level of 29000 and we are waiting for proper market action.

US government officials are likely to release results of several financial institutions’ tests (here).

Brian’s video for today (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/White-House-US-release-some/story.aspx?guid={2165C9C7-DE0E-4F6A-B0AA-0A61EBC2421F}]

The WIG Index gain +0.19%:

Another higher high and new weekly buy signal has been generated.

The WIG Index is near the important level of 29000, where the primary trend can be acknowledged as reversed (preferably after rebounce and strong confirmation):

S&P500 analysis from Fibonacci Queen (here) and Brian’s daily video (here).
Both videos are suggesting to be defensive now.

The Baltic Dry Index seems to be recovering (here).

And some encouraging words from Ben Bernanke (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Decline-could-slowing-Bernanke-says/story.aspx?guid={0C3D6921-B2F3-4D0B-8EE8-4F8B3078D26D}]
[http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2009/04/13/baltic-dry-index-moving/]

The EURPLN has broken the level of 4.40 (this post) and weekly sell signal has been generated:

The CHFPLN is still on support:

We have weekly downtrend on both currencies. Target prices are as per Fibo 168% level, however there is no reliable way to forecast currencies and we should not stick to those levels.

More complex EURPLN analysis (as per Elliott’s Wave Theory) can be found on Lem’s blog (here, chart here).

Sources:
[http://lemansa.wordpress.com/2009/04/05/fusy-na-tydzien-1509/ (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle]

The WIG Index gain +2.39%:

As we made higher high, another weekly buy signal has been generated.

Obviously, last few days are amazing; the rallies are faster and the correction seems inevitable (only subjective opinion), but yet the market is making higher highs. That just confirms saying we should trade what we see, not what we think.

Brian’s video for today.

An interesting presentation about bear markets (here).

The EURPLN generated weekly sell signal:

There is no session on Friday and Monday. Happy Easter!

(image shamelessly stolen from here)

Sources:
[http://dshort.com/charts/bear-recoveries.html]

The WIG Index gain +4.56% today:

I’m not sure if we can say there was a correction yesterday. The today’s breakout of 27000 has generated long- and medium-term buy signal.
The volume is decreasing and still high, but well below the volume from few days ago. RSI is neutral, however CCI shows negative divergence.

It’s hard not to be bullish now, but there is nothing like everlasting rally and we always need to remember about proper money management.

The fundamentals remain weak (here) and there is a danger of coming inflation (here).

Ireland greatly increased taxes (here) – that are not good news for all polish immigrants working there.

Interesting strategy from Investopedia – Dividend Arbitrage.

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/130080-sustainable-bull-market-unlikely]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/130115-bail-out-for-dummies-part-i]
[http://www.rte.ie/money/budget2009/stories/2009/0407/budgetmeasures.html]
[http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dividend-arbitrage.asp]

The WIG Index fell -0.90%:

The Fibo 168% acted as a resistance. CCI seems to confirm the south direction and RSI is neutral as of now.
We might also want to open positions on this downward swing, but remember about proper money management and stop-loss orders.
We have to see how deep this correction will be (if any). Not much else can be said right now.

There is quite interesting analysis of year US market returns (here).

Toxic debts could total to ca.4 trillion USD (here).

The DJIA video analysis from Fibonacci Queen (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/129884-u-s-market-returns-by-year]
[http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article6047929.ece]

The WIG Index gain +0.99%:

As we made higher high, the weekly buy signal has been generated. Descending volume (but still very high) and Fibo 168% might suggest retracement, oscillators are rather neutral.
Neverthless, we are still in weekly uptrend and we need proper market action to make any forecasts.
Not much else can be said before we confirm or negate current uptrend.

High-tech jobs in US suffered its deepest layoffs in seven years (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/High-tech-layoffs-climb-first/story.aspx?guid={33AFAB9C-0276-4883-8F8B-E5F5009BA0B4}]

This week showed some volatility in EURPLN:

The rally bounced from Fibo 61.8% level and crossed the weekly low of 4.40. Daily sell signal has been generated at 4.47. Nevertheless, the breakout is still in error margin and the weekly sell signal has not been generated yet.

The CHFPLN looks alike:

Daily sell signal has been generated at 2,92. The current price is near the level 2.84, but, similarly to EURPLN, weekly sell signal has been not generated yet.

Both currencies remain in downtrend. The charts are showing the projected 168% retracement from last swing, however, note that it’s just the guessing game and we really should focus on trend following.

The European Central Bank, reduced Thursday its key interest rate to 1.25% (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/european-central-bank-cuts-rate/story.aspx?guid={A4E741C0-0EDA-47DE-A69F-2814DDDF4FE2}]

Another rally today (+2.21%):

As the market broken last weekly high, another long-term buy signal has been generated. Big volume and rising oscillators (but note the lower low in RSI) are confirming the rally.

The WSE is amazing for last few days. After such a rallies it’s rather likely to retrace at least part of this swing, however nothing suggest correction now.

Today’s rally was more than impressive:

Record high volume (second only to 16th Jan) and big price gain (+5.97%) are encouraging.

Nevertheless, from technical point of view, not much have changed in general situation – the medium-term (daily) buy signal would be generated above 25700.

Nevertheless, today’s results look impressive:

Today’s term of day from Investopedia – sucker rally. Hopefully not, but always mind to follow proper money management principles.

Brian’s video for today.

There are some initial news from G20 economic summit in London (here or here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Sarkozy-Merkel-praise-Obamas-G20/story.aspx?guid={F16448A6-C6EC-473E-B94E-35574FFE18C0}]
[http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123868021679482457.html]
[http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sucker-rally.asp]

The WIG Index gained +0.46% today:

Not much can be added to yesterday’s post – we just need for proper market action. Long-term and medium-term system’s signals suggest uptrend continuation.
However, note the long-term has been reversed by system, but in my subjective opinion we should cross 29000 before we can say the main trend has been reversed.

General Motors can fill for bankruptcy (here or here).

Brian’s video for today.

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Ford-GM-March-sales-drop/story.aspx?guid={BF094BE8-768D-46E7-8F23-7C105B521DA8}]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/obama-views-bankruptcy-likely-gm/story.aspx?guid={2219C807-D793-4C61-A001-3E7095472C8F}]

The WIG Index fell in the last minutes, eventually gaining +0.23%:

The CCI oscillator has made lower low, but rest of the indicators we use (RSI, decreasing price and volume, Fibo retracements) suggest uptrend continuation in medium-term.

Nevertheless, the WIG Index is still in medium-term uptrend and the level of 22700 seems to be the last bottom.

Brian’s video for today here.

Some thoughts about Warren Buffett’s portfolio (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/128657-the-days-of-buy-and-hold-are-over]

The WIG Index fell -3.36%:

It’s quite interesting situation as we are between two gaps. And gaps tend to be covered.

Neither medium-term (daily) or long-term (weekly) uptrend have been broken. Nevertheless, we are still in risky environment and we shall expect big volatility at least.

Profit taking day – as Brian described in his video.

There are speculation about General Motors bankruptcy (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Stocks-Slide-DJIA-Ends-Off/story.aspx?guid={F3DA523A-1D98-439E-B4E5-4AEF589788D6}]

EURPLN gained +2.25% at last session:

The medium-term (weekly) downtrend is still intact, however EURPLN might generate short-term (daily) buy signal if 4.6925 is significantly crossed.

The CHFPLN actually generated short-term buy signal (crossing 3.0575):

Nevertheless the medium-term (weekly) is still intact and from this perspective it is still correction.

Currencies are as always hard to forecast and we are limiting our analysis to simple trend following signals here.

The WIG Index fell -2.26%:

There is lot of speculation in Internet forums what the market will do next. It’s one of the strongest rallies lately and we could hope for bear market’s end.

However, we try not to trade on any forecasts, but on market actions. Current technical situation shows there is a uptrend in medium-term (daily) and long-term (weekly) buy signal has been generated.
If we interpret a weekly high from 10th Feb as a peek, the trend has been reversed. More cautious approach is to wait for breaking of 29000.

Not much else can be said, in both cases we shouldn’t risk more than 5-7% of our total capital.

Brian’s video here (not so daily lately).

Today’s session was not so impressive as yesterday (-0.36%):

The WIG Index generated a long-term buy signal yesterday. Still, the WIG Index should cross 29000 at least before we can say the bear trend reversed.
However, we might try to enter the trades, as risk/profit ratio on several shares is quite encouraging.

There is quite interesting letter from one of the ex-AIG employees (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/127977-congress-handling-of-aig-bonuses-is-shameful]

Today’s session was impressive (+4.23%):

The WIG Index has clearly broken the 24700 (last weekly high from 10th Feb) and generated long-term buy signal. Trends in CCI and RSI and rising volume seem to confirm the direction.

In my subjective opinion the main downtrend is still intact and we need to cross 29000 (as for now) before we can confirm long-term uptrend. However, the rally is well visible and we should consider entering the market.

As the current rally may be easily qualified as parabolic uptrend (here or here), we should rather avoid market orders and we might want to wait for correction. Also, remember the market can go in any direction at any time, therefore we should always follow the principles of money management.

PLN interest rates have been lowered by 0.25% (here).

US economy seems to be somewhat better (here or here)

US rejects China currency proposal (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5478.html]
[http://www.forex-articles.net/article-24.html]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/geithner-bernanke-reject-china-currency/story.aspx?guid={7B77BC42-BCED-4568-9FB4-22493E84CCB2}]
[http://www.rp.pl/artykul/2,281666.html (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Durable-goods-orders-jump-Feb/story.aspx?guid={F6B658F2-ACC6-4E1D-B5A4-3F4A6E38739C}]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Economic-reports-may-boost-longevity/story.aspx?guid={41D36EAF-D415-4101-9CD8-8681BA5DE589}]

The WIG Index touched the level of 24700:

It seems the forecast (or rather a guess) from this post was correct and now market is in interesting situation around the level of 24700. Crossing this level will generate buy signal.

The divergences in CCI and RSI seem to confirm the rally. Also volume suggest the uptrend continuation. Nevertheless it is still risky to open a larger long-term positions. We should wait for few sessions to see if the WIG Index stays above 24700. Proper money management is a priority here.

It seems China is worried about its USD reserves (here or here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/127435-the-un-china-want-to-ditch-the-dollar]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/127591-china-wants-to-transfer-currency-risk-back-to-the-u-s]

Today’s rally was impressive (+3.18%):

Positive divergences, rising volume, breaking Fibo 61.8% and opening gap are encouraging signs. Nevertheless, we have to remember the market is still bearish.

Presented strategy is not the bottom picker and we cannot say the trend is reversed before breaking 29000 (high from 7th Jan).

However, breaking the 24700 will generate buy signal (weekly high from 2nd Feb). Depending on one’s profile, it might be good idea to place few small speculative positions (which is subjective as there is no reliable technical sign of trend reversal), but only if the WIG Index keeps above 24700 for at least few sessions.

The EURPLN remains in downtrend, regardless current rally:

Crossing the last high (4.79) would be the negation of medium-term (weekly) downtrend and would make the current situation even more complex.

The downtrend on CHFPLN’s chart seem to stronger:

Breaking the level of 2.88 suggest downtrend continuation, however it might be the bear trap as the decline from 3.15 – 3.25 area was pretty fast.

As always – the currencies are quite hard to forecast, therefore we limit ourselves only to classical trend following.

The Bossa.pl portal prepared a interesting post in its blog section. The article analyses quite simple but effective system for currency trading (here).

Sources:
[http://blogi.bossa.pl/?p=867 (via Google Language Tools)]

The WIG Index gained +1.08% at today’s session:

The market look encouraging. However, there is still not technical reason to buy for long-term and this rally should be still treated as a correction in primary trend.

Oil looks interesting (buy signal on long-term):

The way to invest in oil on WSE are the RCCRUAOPEN certificates, however trader should also remember there is additional risk in downtrend in USDPLN exchange rate.

TARP bonuses is a new buzzword for bonuses paid to employees of financial institutions that received Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) funds (here). New 90% tax was introduced on those bonuses earned during the 2008 year (here).

Sources:
[http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tarp-bonuses.asp]
[http://news.efinancialcareers.com/DEBATE_ITEM/newsItemId-17943]

The WIG Index rallied today +1.91%: