2008/08/13

20080813

Posted in Forex: EURPLN, WSE: WIG & WIG20 AT tagged , , at 20:43 by kisiel2

The WIG Index is rebouncing from the downtrend:

The WIG20 Index closed below Jan’s low:

The US closed more or less neutral, therefore I assume the wide market will continue moving down. Nevertheless, I will not trust any forecast, as under current circumstances the trend can reverse in just few sessions.

Foreign investors are very interested in one polish asset – currency. Polish zloty (PLN) is in a very strong uptrend for a couple of years. Rising interest rates, EU injections, immigrants sending (and converting) foreign currencies, strong polish economy – all of those have brought PLN to its top.
Take a look at EURPLN 300-days chart (thanks to ChartStation):

The EURPLN moves in a channel, right now we are near it upper line. Also the RSI is worth noticing, as it could not cross RSI 70 for a year now.
Interest rates are expected to rise 25-50 points in this year, therefore the EURPLN rally should continue.

Note – oil reached its target profit, I will consider closing some of the oil shorts from this post.

Update from 16/08/2008:
It seems the EURPLN crossed the resistance line from the channel above (and what’s interesting also RSI crossed 70). Therefore the analysis has been updated – please check this post.

Sources:
[http://biznes.onet.pl/0,1802960,wiadomosci.html (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://biznes.onet.pl/0,1797836,wiadomosci.html (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://stooq.com/q/?s=eurpln&c=5y&t=l&a=lg&b=1]

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