2009/04/20
20090420 – 200th entry
The WIG Index fell -2.52%:
The weekly and daily uptrends remain intact.
Last several weeks have shown tremendous market strength and it is reasonable to have a pullback now. However, we have to wait for proper market action.
Welcome to 200th entry!
The blog has started 14th July (this post) as continuation from Money.pl forum “Analiza WIG20” thread (polish, occasionally updated). Totally ca.350 charts were published – mainly WIG, discontinued WIG20, EURPLN and CHFPLN.
Upon blog start, the financial crisis was well under way and the WIG Index was already in a downtrend; hopefully the market started to recover, but this is only my subjective opinion.
Current economic situation was unheard of. Economy is very global now, the fast capital changes markets very quickly and current hedge fund industry is very speculative one.
Warsaw Stock Exchange is still very young market (it finished 18 years few days ago, note in this post) and still tends to overreact on economic news; however this is something only maturity can fix. Nevertheless, Poland as a emerging market have pretty strong economy and there is large development potential. Poland is 19th country by the size of country’s gross domestic product as per 2007 statistics (here).
Poland’s finance sector is healthy and the house sector was not hurt so badly in comparison to the more developed countries. Mortgage payments were hit pretty bad as per CHFPLN uptrend and this is still ongoing issue, but polish mortgage owners are rather paying their debts and there aren’t many defaults.
Poland has lost many professionals due to immigration, however they tend to going back now. The immigrants are also transferring a great amount of foreign money to Poland and convert it to PLN.
Of course, there are many internal and external issues, the average polish income is pretty low in comparison to EU standard and that does not encourage Polens to invest in stock market.
However, the living standard has been continuously increasing on fast pace; therefore, I believe Poland will eventually join the most developed countries and hopefully Warsaw Stock Market will reflect that.
As for Brian Shannon’s video – unfortunately, Brian decided not to publish his video freely anymore. His blog has been shutdown (there is a link to new page, where you can order premium membership).
I would like to thank him, as viewing his videos were great way of learning.
Here is his final video from Sunday.
What we learned is not too rely on oscillators and volume too much; the Brian Shannon‘s saying “only price pays” is very actual. Nevertheless, the Fibo levels and patterns can sometimes provide valuable tool for target level estimation.
Another hard learned lesson was not to rely on feelings and forecasts and always have proper money management.
Sources:
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)]
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